Relative to other unstable parts of the world, Latin America is comparatively tranquil.  However, the region is not without its problems.  Latin America is the birthplace of that particular type of terrorism which uses standup guerrilla warfare in the name of political nationalism combined with economic revolution.  This method of warfare is somewhat outdated, as is communism, which still exists there, but one doesn't have to be a Marxist to believe, as many do in the region, that North American imperialism is behind a lot of Latin American problems.  It's a region where one can find revolutionaries, militants, extremists, right-wing death squads, guns-for-hire, military juntas, communist heroes, organized criminals, left-wing Marxists, right-wing Maoists, religious fanatics, peasant warriors, and just about anything else.  Guns are plentiful, and the whole financial infrastructure is largely unregulated, with extensive profiteering and black market enterprise.  In fact, underground economies like the Black Market Peso Exchange (BMPE) rival the hawala system used by Muslims.  Most terrorist experts regard Latin America as a "jumping off" point for international terrorism against the U.S. because of the region's geographical proximity and porous borders.  The widespread poverty and endemic corruption also serve as a breeding ground for terrorism, and there is an abundance of soft targets which represent U.S. interests.            

COLOMBIA
    Colombia qualifies as Latin America's number one trouble spot, and casts a large shadow over all of Latin America.  Some political leaders are anti-drug advocates, but their careers are usually short-lived.  The whole country has been engaged in a military-paramilitary conflict for forty years.  Thousands of people are killed every year. The victims are largely civilians caught between parties to the conflict. Atrocities are committed on all sides, by both pro-government troops and opposition forces.  Some say U.S. aid is fueling the volatile situation, but even without a drug problem, Colombia might very well have problems anyway, given its rapid urbanization, since the city of Bogata is one of the fastest-growing cities in the world.  Colombia has the highest murder rate, per capita, in the world.

    There are several parties to the ongoing conflict. Besides the U.S. military, there are two left-wing rebel groups, FARC and ELN, right-wing paramilitary death squads, and the Colombian National Army.  About 30% of the population live in rural areas, and they mostly support the rebels.  Narco-traffickers (who make billions a year) hire different groups, mostly rebels, to protect the poppy and coca fields. The right-wing paramilitaries originally evolved to protect farmers from FARC and ELN, but today, some provide security services to drug lords. FARC and ELN number about 20,000 trained soldiers apiece, but estimates vary, and ELN's numbers are usually considered much smaller. The AUC and various other paramilitaries number about 7,000, but again, estimates vary. 

    FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) was founded in 1964 by Manuel Marulanda Velkez as part of the Communist Party, but it's uncertain today how close they remain to their Marxist roots. They deny their drug lord protection and kidnapping activities are criminal, preferring instead to call them "taxes" by which they raise almost $600 million a year.  At any given time, they have hostages. The FARC hold large chunks of Colombia, anywhere from 40-60% of the geographic area.  There have been on-again off-again ceasefires with them.  From time to time, there is talk that the southern part of Colombia could be territorially dismembered and handed over to FARC.  Such an idea usually develops during fragile peace negotiations, but also when new guerilla strategies and operations are carried out.

   The ELN (National Liberation Army) is as old as FARC, but based on a combination of Marxist ideology and Cuban ideology with Catholic liberation theology (end of state rule and more social justice). They tend to target corporate interests and business executives more than government forces, but they also raise money by extortion and kidnapping. In terms of military capacity, they are a little less stronger than FARC, and express interest in peace negotiations at times.

    The UAC (United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia) is but one of several paramilitary organizations in Colombia which have both private and public origins as well as some having been U.S.-supported proxy counterinsurgency fighters.  There is no adequate way to describe them briefly, but Strauss (2006) does a good job when he says they war against not only guerrillas, but anyone suspected of being a guerrilla sympathizer, such as union members, peasant organizers, human rights workers, and religious activists.  Some paramilitaries extend their parameters to include drug addicts, alcoholics, petty criminals, and the homeless.  They are in regular communication with the Colombian military and police, often sharing intelligence and coordinating operations together.  Since a 2003 peace and amnesty deal, they have been relatively quiet, but smaller, more clandestine, splinter groups have arisen, three types in particular: paramilitaries that did not demobilize; groups in collusion with drug cartels; and criminal gangs that fight for a share of the drug trade.  These splinter groups have not infiltrated regional politics like the regular paramilitaries did, and they lack a strong command structure or ideological bent.  Instead, they have seized control of areas formerly controlled by paramilitaries in a process known as "recycling" which is similar to the atomization or fragmentation of criminal organizations after Colombia’s drug cartels were destroyed.     

    Guevara's ideology of terrorism can be summarized as follows:

• revolutionary activity itself can create favorable conditions for revolution

• the U.S., landowners, and wealthy bourgeois are the principal enemies of Latin America

• change can only be accomplished through armed revolution by popular forces

• armed fighting can be most successful in underdeveloped, rural countries

• terror is justified if it promotes revolutionary conditions necessary to overthrow the enemy; it should never be used against rural masses or against civilian forces

BRAZIL
    The largest country in the region is home to the intellectual underground of Latin America, but nobody really "dares" question the military dictatorship, nor defends it either, since it is simply seen as necessary to protect the country from Colombian and Peruvian rebels.  Millions of the masses live in poverty, and the Indian problem is largely neglected. No terrorist group in Brazil has ever been able to connect with the apathetic masses, nor have much success against the top leadership.  Right-wing counter-revolutionary cults such as Tradition, Family, and Property (TFT) tend to dot the ideological landscape, and Brazil has recently become a hub for Islam in Latin America via the building of mosques, libraries, arts centres, schools, and funding of newspapers.  However, the premiere theorist of terrorism came out of Brazil.  His name is Carlos Marighella and his ideas are summarized below:

    Marighella's ideology of terrorism consists of the following tactics and doctrine:

• discredit and harass the oppressors

• destroy goods and belongings of the oppressors

• engage in guerrilla and psychological warfare

• be willing to read and understand revolutionary writings

• become familiar with a list of possible actions and train carefully

• acquire the skills of marksmanship and disguise

PERU
    From 1980 until 1992, a Maoist revolutionary terrorist group, the Shining Path (Sendero Luminoso in Spanish)terrorized Peru and much of the world abroad.  In 1992, the leader of the group, Abimael Guzman, was captured and his central committee with him.  However, unlike the group known as Túpac Amaru Revolutionary Movement (MRTA) which was active from 1984-1997, Shining Path just doesn't seem to go away and has turned out to be quite resilient.  After Guzman's arrest, there was a short-term increase in violence, but then a decline.  Authorities hoped that by the time Shining Path only accounted for 6% of the annual crime rate, it was soon to go away, but they came back with a shopping center car bombing across the street from the U.S. embassy in 2002.  Followers of the group, called senderistas, also have been active in clashes with police thru 2003-2006.  Additionally, a faction of Shining Path called Proseguir (or "Onward") continues to be sporadically active in the kidnapping of multinational business executives and employees (which is lucrative in Latin America since most corporations pay off).  It is believed that Prosequir consists of about 100 hardliners from (now disbanded) Shining Path units.  Peru also has small factions of FARC (out of Colombia) operating in country.  Peru has aggressively prosecuted terrorist suspects and is a party to all 12 of the conventions and protocols relating to terrorism. 

    An interesting story of just how harsh Peru is involves the case of Lori Berenson, an American who is serving a 20-year sentence there for collaborating with terrorists.  At trial, she said she didn't know they were terrorists, but while in prison, she advocated MRTA causes and even married a known terrorist.  Her parents, both college professors, helped organize a campaign to free her, recruiting famous left-wing activists such as Ramsey Clark and Noam Chomsky.  With their help, she blogs anti-American rhetoric from within a Peruvian prison via a website called Committee to Free Lori Berenson.

MEXICO
    After more than seventy years in power, the revolutionary party, PRI (Partido Revolucionario Institucional) lost presidential elections in 2000.  The president from 2000-06, Vicente Fox, of PAN (Partido Accion Nacional) attempted to overhaul the justice system and seek better relations with the U.S.  The president since 2006, Felipe Calderon (also of PAN), has a strong anti-drug policy.  For many years, the Mexican government has been engaged in a low intensity conflict with the Zapatista Army of National Liberation (EZLN), who sometimes invade cities and are involved in cyberattacks worldwide.  The Zapatistas think of themselves as the first "post-modern" revolutionaries who are not so much interested in anti-globalization, but "alter-globalization," meaning they use modern technology to protest modern technology's dominance.  This Marxist, Gramscian-anarchist group has been in existence since 1983, but didn't come into public attention until 1994, on the day NAFTA came into effect.  One of their main leaders is a colorful figure called Subcomandante Marcos (aka Delegado Zero; real name unknown) who travels on a black motorbike (like Che Guevara did) and is accompanied by his pet rooster (I'm not making this up).  Academic writing about the Zapatistas is extensive, and it would be safe to say that in left-wing circles, the group enjoys "cult" status, and has been known to cooperate with anti-WTO and anti-war protesters in the U.S.

    Less colorful are the many Mexican drug lords who own huge geographic parts of Mexico with mass cemeteries, marijuana and poppy fields.  Some of the first drug lord groups who came into prominence during the 1980s included the Guadalajara Cartel which broadened into a group known as the Federation, which broke into two factions, the Tijuana Cartel also known as the Arellano Felix Organization (AFO), and the Sinaloa Cartel, which soon became dwarfed by the rival Juarez Cartel also known as the Golden Triangle Alliance, or La Alianza Triángulo de Oro, which eventually produced a spin-off group called the Valencia Cartel (aka the Milenio cartel).  Today, most experts say the Big 3 (Valencia, Juarez, and Sinaloa cartels) make up the current "Federation."  The largest new group may be the Matamoras-based Gulf Cartel which is rumored to have successfully infiltrated American law enforcement, intelligence, and military organizations.  Infiltration is further rumored to involve a group of ex-Army special forces called Los Zetas, who along with the gang MS-13 work as enforcers or distributors for the cartels.  In all, there are about seven or eight Mexican cartels that fight over the drug market, and alliances are constantly shifting.  The Gulf, Sinaloa, and Juarez cartels are the largest and strongest, especially when paired with the Tijuana cartel.  The Juarez, Sinaloa, and Valencia cartels have also cooperated in the past.  Additional groups include the Colima Cartel (the Methamphetamines Kings) and the Oaxaca Cartel.    

    Mexican immigration to the U.S. is problematic.  This is discussed somewhat in the Lecture on Border Security, but what is not noted there is the fact that Mexico is one of the richest countries in Latin America.  However, the wealth is concentrated in the hands of very few.  This makes the question of immigration not about why they come, but why Mexico's economy cannot support its own people.  The answer appears to be greed, and an almost deliberate policy of exporting Mexico's main commodity -- people.  50% of Mexico's population are in poverty, and 10% are so poor that they live on less than a dollar a day. Yet, Mexico has more "Forbes" billionaires, 11, than all but eight other nations. It has more billionaires than Saudi Arabia, Switzerland or Taiwan. It also has more than 85,000 millionaires.  The Mexican economic elite is well-protected by the Mexican political elite, and there are no incentives for anybody in power to do anything about the crippling poverty affecting large segments of the population.  In fact, former President Vicente Fox once called illegal immigrants to the U.S. "national heroes" because they send home about $16 billion a year, more than any Mexican industry produces, except oil.  In terms of oil, Mexico sits on a vast oil reserve, but doesn't allow foreign investment to tap those reserves.  Besides mismanagement of economic resources, Mexico's tax system is a sham, and suffers from widespread tax evasion.  The lack of tax revenue means little money is spent on education, healthcare, and other social services.

    As far as Islamic or al-Qaeda influence in Mexico is concerned, it is the opinion of many experts that much of the "al-Qaeda Threat from South of the Border" is overblown (see Islamic Radicalism in Mexico).  Illegal immigration is certainly a threat because people are crossing the border and we don't know who they are, but this represents a vulnerability short of a threat until capability can be vectored.  Also, certainly the U.S. government's recent practice of turning loose "OTMs" (other than Mexicans) rather than returning them to Mexico is of great concern.  In 2005, the alarm levels reached their peak.  In that year, al-Qaeda released a video (an al-Zarqawi video designed to reduce the morale of US troops in Iraq), in which the speaker opined about how easy it would be for al-Qaeda to infiltrate the US-Mexican border.  Whether or not al-Qaeda has the capability to do this is a frequent topic of intelligence analysis.  It should be mentioned that there's the problem of a known al-Qaeda terrorist-fugitive running loose in the region.  His name is Adnan Gulshair el Shukrijumah, and although it's hard to separate fact from fancy about this individual, a rough profile is provided below.

ADNAN EL-SHUKRIJUMAH (nickname: Ja'far al-Tayyar or Ja'far the Pilot, aka "the South American" among numerous aliases):  Residing near the top of the FBI's most wanted list and described by DHS as a "clear and present danger" is an elusive al-Qaeda terrorist operating in Latin America who may have already infiltrated the U.S. He was fingered by Khaled Shaikh Mohammed as al-Qaeda's man who would lead the next catastrophic attack, and named by Pakistani journalist Hamid Mir as already in the U.S. with nuclear materials. A master of disguise with multiple passports, Shukrijumah is an intelligent, English-speaking, Western college-educated, world traveler who has been sighted in Canada scoping out McMaster University's nuclear reactor, in Panama casing the canal as a target, in Miami attempting to visit his parents, and in Honduras and the Caribbean talking to criminal syndicates. Shukrijumah was trained in Afghani terrorist camps, attended the Malaysian and Waziristan terror summits, received flight training in Florida and Oklahoma (with Mohammed Atta), and worshipped at the same mosque as Jose Padilla. A worldwide manhunt and reward ($5 million) exist for this phantom. His parents say he's in Morocco.

Sources: Hamid Mir's website; Wikipedia Entry on Shukrijumah; Assessing Shukrijumah's Nuclear Plot; The Hunt for Shukrijumah; America's Real Most Wanted; Spotted Trying to Rent a House in Texas Sept. 2006; Videotape of Shukrijumah (mpg)

EL SALVADOR
     El Salvador has been a nominally Catholic, mestizo, troubled nation for years, beset by natural and man-made disasters, and a place where crime is rampant and police are scarce.  A communist organization known as the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) became notable there as an umbrella group for other left wing guerilla organizations.  Today, things are improving, and most Salvadorans are armed, but the country still has one of the highest homicide rates in the world.  Millions of Salvadorans have migrated elsewhere.  The Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) is one such group, migrating primarily to the United States where they seem to have perfected exploiting the "revolving door" of deportation and immigration controls.  In 2005, the FBI declared them the most dangerous gang on the planet, and they operate in at least five nations (see International Reach of the Mara Salvatrucha), and within at least thirty-three states in the U.S.  Originally born out of an overcrowded prison in El Salvador, the gang quickly took over the Pico District in Los Angeles, and by 2005 had established strongholds in Matamoros, Houston, Washington, D.C., Northern Virginia, East Boston, Long Island as well as a number of other places, like Charlotte and Nashville.  Members are usually tattooed head-to-toe (although sometimes not); they are capable of well-organized criminal "hits" involving machetes and military tactics; they have a well-financed prostitution ring; they are moving into the drug business; and their leadership is not stupid.  When they feel the heat, the gang moves on to another city, usually in the Midwest or South.  They are a mobile bunch, and far more alarming than their usual "hits" on law enforcement, armed robberies, and rape is their alleged involvement with suspected al-Qaeda "sleeper cells."  Fugitive al-Qaeda operative, Shukrijumah, was spotted meeting with them in Honduras, for example, and sources like JihadWatch and Msthirteen.com often report on connections between al-Qaeda and MS-13 in places like Falls Church, VA and East Boston.  A link-up between these two groups would be dangerous, and quite possible given MS-13's demonstrated ability to partner with other gangs and syndicates.                 

HONDURAS and NICARAGUA
    Honduras is the original "Banana Republic" where in the 1980s, the U.S. backed the Contras against the Nicaraguan Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN or Sandinistas).  Most of the landmines in the Honduras-Nicaragua border region have now been removed, but Honduras still has problems with crime and migration.  MS-13 and another gang, enemies of MS-13, the Los-Angeles based M18 have a strong presence in Honduras.  Police effectiveness is improving, but the most urgent need is for border and port control.  Honduras (along with much of Central America) is a major producer of marijuana, and a transshipment point as well as local consumer for the drug.  Cocaine and heroin tend to be transhipped via other countries, by contrast.  Nicaragua likewise has similar problems with its arms-controls and export procedures. 

PARAGUAY and the TRIBORDER REGION
    The Triple Frontier is the tri-border area of Paraguay, Argentina, and Brazil formed by the intersection of three cities:  Ciudad del Este (Paraguay), Puerto Iguazú (Argentina), and Foz do Iguaçu (Brazil).  The Paraguayan side serves as the best safe haven for terrorism since that nation essentially has no anti-terrorism laws.  Suspected terrorists are usually only fined or charged with tax evasion at worst.  Paraguay is party to six of 12 international conventions and protocols relating to terrorism.  The Brazil-Paraguay border can be crossed on foot, often with no documents.  As one might surmise, this is a pretty lawless region, perhaps the world's last, great "frontier zone."  Argentina, to its credit, has made some efforts in trying to crack down on much of what goes on there.  Argentina is party to eight of 12 conventions and protocols relating to terrorism.  Likewise, Brazil sometimes follows up on leads provided to them by the US Government on terrorist suspects, and the better arrests and convictions of terrorists in the region have been in Brazilian courts.  Brazil is party to nine of 12 international conventions and protocols relating to terrorism.  NTI has a well-researched and scholarly analysis in their article entitled "Islamist Terrorist Threat in the Tri-Border Region."

URUGUAY
    This was the site of the Tupamaros Revolution from 1962-1972. The word Tupamaros comes from a heroic Inca chieftain named Tupac Amaru.  They practiced Marighella-style terrorism on the city streets and sidewalks, killing and kidnapping whomever and whenever they pleased.  Eventually, the government got tired of appearing ineffective, and started a crackdown which relied chiefly upon torture of captured terrorists.  Ironic for Uruguay to turn to torture since at the time, it was the most stable democracy of any Latin American country.  What the Tupamaros added to Marighella's model was the tactic of snatching prominent citizens off the street, killing and burying them, and leaving survivors and authorities to wonder where they disappeared to without a trace.  For this, they were sometimes called the grave-diggers. The Tupamaros were known as the MLN (Movimiento de Liberación Nacional) or National Liberation Movement.  Today they are known as the Movement of Popular Participation.    

ARGENTINA
    This country was home to a Marighella-style revolution soon after the Tupamaros outbreak in Uruguay.  The years 1975-76 there represent perhaps the bloodiest fighting in all of Latin America in terms of urban terrorism.  A total of no less than 650 political assassinations took place that year, and thousands of people disappeared without a trace. Argentinean terrorists consisted of two groups: the Montoneros (socialist Peronists) and the ERP (communist students).  Currently, the nation is attempting to bring former presidents and junta generals to account.  Argentine authorities are hoping to call upon international help for extraditing their former leaders, who have fled the country, much as Chile has done with Pinochet. Starting around 2002, Argentina has had difficulty keeping a President in office, mostly due to enormous problems surrounding its debt.

CHILE
    This country has long been obsessed with the sixty+ criminal complaints against former dictator Pinochet who is responsible for many extrajudicial executions and "disappearances" during his reign.  Criminal charges are now taking place against former military officers and members of his intelligence service since Augusto Pinochet died in December, 2006.  

PANAMA
    Since being let go by the U.S., Panama is somewhat at risk of coming under Chinese influence because the Hutchinson Whampoa company, who won the bid to lease the canal and has independent interests, is considered by some to be under the influence of the Chinese government (although this is hotly disputed as Mr. Li Ka-shing, the company's billionaire chairman, may simply be using his business influence to further the aims of the government in Beijing). The Chinese have always wanted a foothold in Latin America, but it is not in their best interests to build up a military presence in the form of submarine bases.

HAITI
    Among the poorest countries in the Americas and having a huge wealth gap between rich and poor, Haiti is a nation of slave descendents where the main religion is Voodoo.  The rich French mulatto aristocracy (less than 1% of the population) have always run the country.  The "Papa Doc" years (1957-1971) under Dr. François Duvalier were essentially a reign of terror, and then the "Baby Doc" years (1971-1986) under his son, Jean-Claude Duvalier, were not much better, followed by the spotty presidency of Jean-Bertrand Aristide (1986-2004), a controversial figure who managed to turn Haiti's traditional allies, France and the U.S., against him.  During Aristide's rule, thousands of Haitians fleed Haiti by boat to the U.S., which in part, precipitated Operation Restore (Uphold) Democracy in 1994 which committed U.N. (and U.S.) troops and serves as an important case study of peacekeeping and nation-building (Ballard 1998).     

GUATEMALA
    This country has been fighting a rebellion of its indigenous Indian (Maya) population (60% of the people) and a number of rebel and reformist forces for many decades (make that centuries), although the current civil war, along with all its associated atrocities, is measured by having gone on for the last thirty-six years.  The U.S. helped train the first counterinsurgency army of Guatemala during the 1960s, but then, the U.S. cut off military aid from 1977 to 1986 because of the government’s use of excessive force against its citizens.  Since the late 1980s, the government seems to have transitioned toward democracy, but free and fair elections are still problematic.

ECUADOR
    This country defaulted on its Brady Bonds in 1999, and suffered a major economic crisis that almost resulted in a military coup.  It has bounced back quite well since.  Ecuador generally supports US counterterrorism initiatives, but has weak laws, weak financial controls, and inadequately trained security personnel.  Security forces in the country are usually busy dealing with the many problems in the northern provinces such as the smuggling of arms destined for Colombian terrorist groups.  Elections and other political issues tend to trigger protests.    

VENEZUELA
    Hugo Chavez seized power in 1992, and consolidated power by responding to the earthquakes with government assistance. He appears to be interested in democracy and concern for the poor (75% of the nation lives in poverty despite being an oil-rich nation), but he has used a patronage system to place his supporters in key positions. President Chavez is an open admirer of Fidel Castro, has a 66% approval rating, is rewriting the constitution to favor the poor, and threatens violence toward anyone who disagrees with him. The country has substantial oil terminals that the U.S. depends on.

Hugo Chavez is of mixed Amerindian, African, and Spanish descent. A former lieutenant colonel, he tried pursuing graduate study in political science but dropped out and founded a revolutionary group known as MBR-200 in 1983 which by 1992 pulled off a coup d'etat with 10% of military support. Betrayal in his organization led to a 2-year prison term, which only made him popular. By 1994, he established a new group, the MVR which by 1998 helped him win the Presidency.  He has cracked down on labor unions, teachers, doctors, and the media, consolidated political and military power, and in 2007 ordered further elections suspended and his rule by decree until 2021. Interest in the dictator's oft-bizarre activities has spawned much interest around the blogosphere; e.g., HugoChavezWatch, ChavezWatch.

    In a host of OTHER COUNTRIES, abuses by security acting with impunity continues to be a problem. Latin American vigilante justice is strong, as is the indiscriminate use of torture. Lengthy shootouts are common. Militia groups (technically called the National Guard in some places) provide the only protection in many areas.  Government ineffectiveness is rampant.  Inhumane detention facilities may very well be the true breeding grounds for revolutionaries and terrorists.  In this regard, the most abusive prisons are probably in Venezuela, Brazil, Haiti, Panama, and El Salvador. Tourism is down since many travelers are paranoid about the crime rates, but if caution is used, the region is safe to travel in.