Asia has always been a region apart, isolated and divided by rivalries and loyalties hard to comprehend from the Western standpoint.  Pure nationalism tends to prevail, politically and economically, as each nation does things "their own way," and militarily in a different way, the tradition being to train extremist groups in one country to stage attacks in another.  The region suffers from numerous separatist and secessionist movements, as well as ideological disagreements.  During the 1950s and 60s, most nations in the region were classified or self-aligned with that outdated, pejorative term, "third world," but such terminology has been at least partially replaced by such phrases as fourth world, indigenous peoples, least developed countries, former or current communist countries.  It is archaic in academic circles to talk about 1st, 2nd, and 3rd worlds because many former communist worlds are as technologically-advanced as first worlds and certain oil rich third worlds are richer than some first worlds.  Nonetheless, many parts are Asia are quite poor and densely populated.  Following Africa, Asia is the second poorest region of the world.  International pressure and public opinion seem to have zero influence in the region, and there is a strong anti-internationalist sentiment which extends the sharp distrust of other Asian nations.

    Conflict watchers have their hands full with Asia.  The three biggest powers are China, India, and Japan (although it is worth noting that Japan is more Western than Eastern nowadays).  Russia is no longer considered a superpower.  The Big Three are distrustful and suspicious of each other.  Almost all the other nations in Asia are reluctant to align themselves with any of the "Big 3" because of mistrust also.  In today's globalized system, two large Asian countries are posed to become the world's major actors in the 21st century -- China and India.  Each have large populations and are modernizing fast.  Soon, the Indian-Chinese axis will be a matter of some global importance.  

Asia is the largest land mass on Earth. 60% of the world's population lives there. There are 50 nations, but it's better to think in terms of regions. The dividing line with Europe is considered to be the Strait of Dardanelles that extends up from Turkey, connects the major lakes, and then the Ural Mountains. The dividing line with Africa is considered to be the Suez Canal. Central Asia refers to the Stans (explained below), Afghanistan, Pakistan, parts of Iran, and much of China, Mongolia, and Russia. East Asia consists of Japan, Korea, parts of China and Mongolia, and some Pacific islands. Southeast Asia is Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Singapore, the Philippines, Myanmar (Burma), Malaysia, Indonesia, East Timor, and Brunei. South Asia consists of India, parts of Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, the Maldives, and sometimes, parts of Afghanistan. West Asia (or the Near East) consists of parts of Turkey (Asia Minor), the Sinai Peninsula of Egypt, the Arab Peninsula, and all the Middle Eastern territories that were once Mesopotamia. North Asia consists solely of Siberia, its related provinces and districts, and the Russian Far East. In addition, there are numerous volcano islands in the region that are considered part of Asia, as well as the Pacific Rim islands such as Australia and New Zealand. The Pacific Ocean has an estimated 30,000 islands; no one knows the exact number. The Indian Ocean has exactly 15 islands, and the Antarctic Ocean or Southern Oceans have 45 islands.

    China thinks of itself as the region's superpower, and it would be a mistake to underestimate China in this regard.  Chinese society has some 5,000 years of history behind it, much of that time involving imperialism and warlordism.  It embraced communism following the Chinese civil war of 1945, mostly upon the eagerness of a revolutionary leader named Mao Zedong (aka Mao Tse Tung, Mao Gi-dong, or Mao Dze Dong).  Mao's ideas have had an international, not just an Asian influence.  His ideas are summarized below:

    Mao's ideology of terrorism can be summarized by his three points of attack in recruiting a people's army:

• politically mobilize the rural populace by convincing them that ultimate success depends upon the support and belief of all the people, and that their superior motivation and belief can wear down any enemy by waging a protracted military campaign or war of attrition

• invoke a new, radical strategy that only the peasantry, not the elite, offers any hope for real change and recovering human dignity

• espouse a revolutionary doctrine that utilizes both violence and terror, arguing that power grows out of the barrel of a gun, and that change only comes about through extreme, shocking violence in which the masses must be coerced into participating with if the corrupt state is to be annihilated

    A simple yet effective way of looking at nations in the Asian region is by classifying them as "open" or "closed" societies, and to further add some understanding of communism.  Maoist communism is a closed, completed revolution, as opposed to Trotskyism, which is a version of Leninism (Castroism) that the revolution must be ongoing.  Most Asian communist nations can be considered "closed" in this way, as well as in the usual sense that there are no rights to freedom of association, expression, or assembly. The more "open" and liberal societies include Bangladesh, Cambodia, Malaysia, Pakistan, and Singapore, although even in these nations, Western concepts like due process and human rights are quite different.  At any given time, parts of Asia are either democratizing, becoming communist, becoming Islamic, or undergoing a period of civil unrest.  The exceptions are Australia and New Zealand, which constitute a zone of stability in the pacific rim, along with other nations which have joined in the Rome Statute (participation in the International Court), such as Bangladesh, the Marshall Islands, Solomon Islands, South Korea, and Thailand, but even then, there are exceptions within exceptions.

    Most Asian conflicts are territorial, communal, ethnic, or based on caste tensions exacerbated by government action or inaction.  In INDIA, for example, the ruling Hindu party regularly oppresses Muslims, Christians, and Dalits (untouchables).  In CHINA, ethnic tensions run deep, especially, for example, in the largest and westernmost province, Xinjiang, which is traditionally a Muslim area.  In INDONESIA, religious differences run deep, the army usually siding with Muslims and the police usually with Christians.  There is not a single ethnic or religious conflict in the region that is not reducible to some kind of "ancient hatred" or long-standing territorial dispute.  BURMA, for example, has constant ethnic insurgencies that affect relations with India, Bangladesh, and Thailand.  KASHMIR is a constant source of tension between India and Pakistan, as are Tibet and the Russian border for China.  Laotian terrorists (ethnic Hmong) victimize Thais throughout the region.  Indonesia's inability to control its breakaway provinces worries Malaysia, and raids into Malaysia by Filipino guerrillas often strain relations. Recurrent coups in Fiji also tend to attract concern. 

    Human trafficking is a major issue in Asia. Businesses regularly import and export slave labor on a transnational basis. Women are often kidnapped and sold as sex slaves -- Thai women to Japan or Afghani women to Gulf states. Law enforcement in the region is either corrupt or turns a blind eye to such practices.  Huge numbers of refugees, migrants, and displaced people exist in the region, and are usually fleeing from militia warlords toward refuge in some safe country like Australia.  Homelessness is quite common in Asia, and drug transshipment points abound.  The rights of children doesn't seem to hold much sway.  Take BURMA, for example, where children as young as 11 have been forced to serve in the Army. Most refugees from Burma flee to THAILAND, but Thailand doesn't want them either, or more precisely, only wants them in order to organize some counter-refugee force.  The Thai-Burmese border is a serious, conflict-ridden area, as are many cross-border regions in Asia.  Many Asian nations have good military-espionage capabilities, the two being inseparably linked in many ways, masking the true extent of internal security problems, transnational crime, and other social problems which serve as a breeding ground for terrorism.    

CHINA
    China has a 3 million strong, $70 billion a year military capability with an average 12% increase in military spending every year. As the largest army in the world, they have the capability of offensive land warfare against Vietnam, Myanmar, Bhutan, Tibet, Nepal, Russia, India, and Pakistan.  They could overrun Taiwan (whom they consider a breakaway province) in a matter of hours.  China has long wanted to annex places like Tibet and wipe out that form of Buddhism known as Lamaism, but the self-exiled Dalai Lama has proven to be a formidable figure.

   Ideology, economics, and border disputes with Russia have also pitted China and Russia against each other several times, involving some rattling of nuclear weapons.  Currently, a Sino-Soviet treaty prohibits Russian or Chinese nukes from being targeted at one another, so they are all aimed at the U.S., whom Chinese militarization is strongly competing with.  For example, China is building up its navy (which is mostly submarine based) to defeat the U.S. Seventh Fleet which is permanently stationed there.  American law (the Taiwan Relations Act) requires the U.S. to intervene militarily if China attacks Taiwan.  To defend itself, Taiwan has a 400,000, $14 billion military strength, and a technologically advanced air/naval defense system.  Gunboat diplomacy and containment have always been the predominant American foreign policy in Asia, but appeasement is also common.  At one time after WWII, America was ready to give Taiwan back to China, but the Chinese were in a civil war and there was no one really to give it to.    

    In recent years under the leadership of Deng Xiaoping, China has become more capitalist or at least open to the idea of free competition.  China has emerged as a world trade partner, and now belongs to the World Trade Organization.  Economic growth has been phenomenal, but a good relationship with the West remains elusive for at least a couple of reasons -- one, China's record on human rights, particularly following the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989 -- and two, Chinese spying and stealing of military and technological secrets from several countries.  Neither issue is going to go away.  The conditions which gave rise to mass protest in 1989 still plague China today, and Chinese intelligence systems are the world's oldest and perhaps best.  They have the world's third best spy satellite system, and the world's best HUMINT (Human Intelligence) system, frequently infiltrating agents among the 15,000 Chinese students who arrive in the U.S. annually. 

    China is an expansionist country with a cultural belief that its destiny is to be the center of the world.  For centuries, Chinese thinking was influenced by the wisdom of Sun Tzu, author of The Art of War.  Since the 6^th Century, China has had both a secret police force (specialists in torture and brainwashing) and secret societies (like the Boxers and Triads).  The Chinese intelligence network was the brainchild of Wang Dongxing, Mao's most trusted bodyguard. Wang also set up the system of re-education labor camps, procured young women for Mao (who believed sexual activity slowed down aging), oversaw the development of spy schools (with special instructions in disguise, sexual seduction, surveillance, and photography), and set up China's principal spy station in The Hague.  Chinese intelligence agencies are constantly changing names and using innocent-sounding covers (e.g., the Institute for International Relations; the Chinese Students Friendship Association), and the national news agency, Xinhau, is mainly a cover organization.  The government limits use of fax machines, computer networks, and the Internet.  Most anything in China used by journalists, diplomats, or visitors (telephones, hotel rooms) is bugged for sound and video.

    Most experts consider the principal spy agency to be the Ministry of State Security (MSS). Chinese defectors to the U.S. are rare, but one did occur in 1985 to expose Larry Chin, longtime CIA analyst (1945-1985) who was spying for China the whole time. China tends to rely on human intelligence.  One estimate is that they have about 15,000 spies operating in the U.S. at any given time, as students, maids, clerks, chauffeurs, and even nannies.  China keeps close watch on its nationals overseas, especially Chinese academicians, making sure they come home.  Front organizations such as New Era Corp. and the Chinese International Trust and Investment Corp. (CITI) regularly conduct industrial espionage (with great success), and Western scientists and academicians who visit China often find they are exploited for information.

   China has many borders, and as an example, let's look at the one with India.  The fairly inhospitable 2,000-mile border between India and China has been an issue in world politics.  China doesn't (or shouldn't) care about Nepal, which is frankly a mess, a failed independent monarchy with an ongoing civil war (since 1996).  Bhutan is another independent monarchy with border issues where China has some interests.  However, the position with India is most interesting, and the role of the United States in it is even more interesting -- a kind of Bismarckian strategy in which the U.S. wants to contain Chinese influence and is currently aligning itself with Japan (and Taiwan, a possible "hot spot" or pivotal moment in history about to happen) in order to further this effort, but the U.S. is unsure about whether to use India as a counterbalance against China.  Several experts believe that a step in this direction could damage the fragile Indian-Chinese relationship.  China would likely perceive stronger U.S.-India relations with some sort of hostility, so for right now, the U.S. thinks it best to allow India and China to pursue their relations independently, without any outside interference.

PHILIPPINES
    For many years now, this country has attracted the attention of authorities as an emergent hub, both logistically and operationally, for cross-border jihadist extremism in the region.  In fact, it has been called the "Second Front in the War on Terror."  Most of the focus has been directed toward a particular group called the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) which has close ties to al Qaeda via Osama bin Laden's donation of $6 million to them.  ASG was also associated with Ramzi Yousef of the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, as well as Operation Bojinka, the precursor to the 9/11 attacks.  There are a lot of loosely-affiliated al-Qaeda groups in the Philippines (see 2005 Report on Philippines Terrorism), but ASG has a notable tendency to spread its brand of terrorism around Malaysia, Indonesia, and elsewhere.  Between 1998 and 2001, the group acted more like pirates than terrorists, but in the post-9/11 era, with U.S. and Filipino marines tracking them, ASG has been acting more like terrorists, albeit ones with $5 million rewards on their heads.  The group has connections reaching back to Afghanistan when Abdurajik Abubakar Janjalani became the group's founder but died in 1998, leaving his younger brother, Khadaffy Janjalani, in charge, but the younger Janjalani was killed in 2006.  Then, the ASG put one-armed 70-year old Radulan Sahiron (aka "Kumander Putol") in charge, but he was considered too old to command.  Then, the group in 2007 voted to make Syria-trained Islamic scholar Yasser Igasan its new leader.  The Jolo-born Igasan went to the Middle East in the mid-1990s to take up Islamic studies, and returned to the southern Philippines in 2004.  The size of a typical ASG contingent, the one based in the Sulu islands (between Mindaneo and Borneo), is about 100-200 members.  A larger ASG contingent is based in the Basilan and Mindanao region, which is where the original 1970s Islamic insurgency originated in the Philippines with the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF).  Both contingents are subject to the same leadership, although factions have broken out before, either thru leadership struggles (when the group is quiet) or when they deliberately split to carry out military operations. "Home" for ASG is the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM).  Their most notable accomplishment was the June 2001 capture of 13 hostages, including 3 Americans, although some might argue it was collecting a $25 million ransom during a raid on a famous diving site off the Malaysian coast.  They're a cruel group.  They've beheaded several people on raids at tourist resorts, and they know the jungle intimately. The jungle areas where they hideout is so dense that if you attack it with mortars, they just explode harmlessly up in the forest canopy.  They're also unbelievable sharpshooters.  There are concerns that ASG could attempt to morph or combine with JI (see below) before they are wiped out.

    The country has seen activity by another Islamic terrorist group, the Indonesian-based Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), aka Jemaah Islamiah.  This group is dedicated to establishing a fundamentalist Islamic theocracy in all of Southeast Asia.  Their most famous accomplishment was the 2002 Bali disco bombings which killed hundreds of people on the Indonesian island of Bali.  Subsequent backpack bomb attacks (their signature method) have occurred not only in Bali but in hotels and crowded places throughout the region, and they are known to work in collaboration with ASG.  The spiritual head of JI is Abu Bakar Bashir ("Teacher Abu"), an Indonesian Muslim cleric who denies any connections with terrorism, but often faces legal difficulties including a demand by the USA that he be turned over.  The operational head of JI is Riduan Isamuddin (aka Hambali, the "Osama bin Laden of Southeast Asia") who is currently detained in Guantanamo.  Jemaah Islamiah specializes in financial and logistical support for al Qaeda in the region.  Their financial network is vast, and includes arms smuggling.  They are good at keeping their activities secret.  Their existence only became known after the Bali bombings.     

    The Philippines suffers from many internal problems, including even Christian extremists with Islamist ties.  The country is, unfortunately, not well-equipped to deal with all of this, having been plundered by previous government officials.  Their armed forces are also small, numbering only about 100,000 troops.  $2 billion a year is spent on modernization (partially funded by the United States). At present, the Philippines has only a limited ability to defend herself from potential enemies (China, Japan, Indonesia), and it has its hands full with guerrilla rebel forces.

INDIA
    This predominantly Hindu and pro-American country is an emerging superpower with a large, 2,500,000 strong military, possessing full tank, submarine, and air attack capabilities.  It has the world's largest volunteer armed forces, and the world's second fastest growing economy.  A large scale manufacturing and technological base supports a sustainable path toward development.  India also possesses nuclear weapons which it says it needs for border protection and in case of the unlikely scenario of America turning on it.  The number of terrorist, insurgent, and extremist groups in India is large, and some of them are active worldwide, especially emerging jihadist groups.  For example, The Guide to Wahhabi Organizations in North America (pdf) regards the U.S.-based Islamic Circle of North America (ICNA) as nothing more than a front for India's Jamaat-e-Islami militant group.  India seems to have had serious terrorism  problems in the form of low intensity conflicts (e.g., Sikh separatism and Maoist insurgencies) within its own borders, but it has never become a breeding ground for international terrorism.  Vigilante groups sometimes spring up with counterinsurgencies.  Security forces are sometimes accused of brutality, but by and large, policing in India is efficient and modernized, with good bomb detection and disposal skills.  India likes their heroes to be tough, an example being K.P.S. Gill, India's foremost authority on counterterrorism.  Kanwar Pal (K.P.S.) Gill (aka "Super Cop") is widely credited with addressing the Sikh terrorism problem in Punjab, and now consults for governments via his website, the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

    Since independence from British rule in 1947, India has seen sectarian violence and insurgencies but managed to maintain its unity and democracy.  Incidentally, it was foolish of Britain to lose India since it was what gave the British Empire its global reach. Britain lost its status as a world power when it lost India.  India has unresolved territorial disputes with China, which escalated into mountain warfare during the Sino-Indian War in 1962, and with Pakistan, which resulted in four wars during 1947, 1965, 1971, and 1999.  Animosity with China plays out strategically and economically nowadays.  The traditional buffer zones of Tibet and Nepal have been areas of conflict which keep India occupied, and China refuses to extend its nuclear "no first use" doctrine to include India.  China consistently supplies military assistance to India's neighbors, and India is encircled by failed or potentially failing states -- including Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, Burma, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka.  China's support for Pakistan also hinders relations. Clearly, if India and the United States were to team up militarily against China, that is China's worst nightmare, as would anything like a quadrilateral security partnership among Japan, India, Australia, and the United States.  India is the key counterweight to China in Asia (Chellaney 2006).  At current population growth rates, India will surpass China around 2032 as the world's most populous country.

    India remains the world's best economic success story.  Certainly, shocking examples of poverty can be found, but India has enjoyed the benefit of a well-developed multilingual educational system, especially in higher education (unlike China and other countries in the region).  China, for its part, has basically a corrupt economy based on too much export, a lack of trust between citizen and government, and suffers more from rapid urbanization alone than from rapid industrialization.  While it may seem of only criminological interest to point this out, rapid urbanization alone leads to more juvenile delinquency, organized crime, and the like, while rapid industrialization alone tends to spawn rather predictable increases in property crime and downward fluctuations in violent street crimes.  India is more like the U.S. at least in terms of having a similar crime problem.  It should be reaffirmed that India is an ally of the U.S. (they offered their country as a base of operations after 9/11, but the U.S. didn't take them up on it).  India is seeking a starkly different society, one based on freedom and democracy, promoting economic development and social justice, and it will be the dominant superpower of the 21st century, not China.  The Wikipedia Entry India as Emerging Superpower discusses the pros and cons of this, and the web portal India-Rising discusses how India is dealing with its internal problems of insurgencies and terrorism. 

PAKISTAN
    Pakistan has an active, modern military (500,000 troops with $4 billion a year spent on them), numerous constitutionally-charged militia or paramilitary groups (numbering about 300,000), and well-known intelligence agencies like the ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence).  Pakistan’s military has a strong technological base, with close ties to the U.S.  As a nuclear power, Pakistan is capable of both defense and offense against its chief rival (India).  In recent years, Pakistan has purchased military technology and missiles from China.  Pakistan's military leader and self-appointed President, Pervez Musharaff, came to power in a colorful coup d'etat during 1999.  Since 9/11, Pakistan has sided with the U.S. in the war on terror, and since Musharaff's landmark speech against Islamic extremism in 2002, the country has attempted to make strides against Islamic extremism as well as lawlessness within Pakistan itself.

Well-Known Pakistani Terrorists

Pakistan has been home to a number of well-known al-Qaeda terrorists, such as the one pictured at upper right, Dr. Abu Faraj (the Libyan), who was regarded as #3 (third in command) within the al-Qaeda organization.  He was captured in 2005 and attempted to destroy a notebook computer at the time of his apprehension. He is currently one of about 30 ghost detainees at a CIA black sites. Before then, Pakistan worked with the FBI to capture operations chief Abu Zubaydah and mastermind Khalid Shaikh Muhammad.  Normally (but not always), Pakistani counterterrorism operatives work in conjunction with U.S. forces.  Pakistan has its hands full protecting its own government from attacks by homegrown groups, and the conflict in Kashmir is a constant distraction.  It is sometimes rumored that certain Pakistani military and ISI officials sympathize - or even assist - some Islamist militants, and indeed, some officials had close ties to the Taliban, but it is probably incorrect to think of Pakistan as a safe haven for terrorism.  Comparatively speaking, it has been an enthusiastic ally in the war on terror.

  Terrorist groups operating in Pakistan (and there are many) can be broadly classified as either ethnic and sectarian.  A typical ethnic terrorist group would be the Muttahida Quomi Movement (MQM-A, the suffix denoting the leadership of Altaf Hussain) which seeks territorial gain over other ethnic groups (perhaps even another MQM outfit with a different suffix).  A typical sectarian terrorist group would be the Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP), a Sunni outfit which carries out attacks against Shia activists, celebrities, and worshippers in mosques.  Most terrorist groups in Pakistan have their own mosques and madrassas where their unique brand of fundamentalist and violent interpretation of Islam is promulgated.  Some groups have their own training camps.  Weapons, firearms, and ammunition are easily available in Pakistan.  Al-Qaeda leaders have, of course, made effective use of loose security along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, where tribal areas have provided sanctuary.  Actually, Pakistan has more problems along its border than just the tribal areas, as a 2007 CFR Backgrounder on The Troubled Afghan-Pakistani Border makes clear.  Pakistan has not only had to deal with seven Pashtun tribal agencies (which respect no borders) but the spread of terrorism into the large North West Frontier province (NWFP) as well as growing discontent and nationalism in the even larger region known as Balochistan.  It would not be an exaggeration to say that Pakistan's borderlands represent the world's most complex geopolitical problem.

BANGLADESH
    Bangladesh was set up by the partition of India in 1947 as East Pakistan, but became independent of its (West) Pakistani rule (with the help of India) during the bloody Bangladesh Liberation War of 1971.  After its independence, Bangladesh tried to become a parliamentary democracy, but the poor country suffered famines and a series of coups and counter-coups.  It continues to suffer from corruption, political violence, and the rise of Islamic terrorist groups.  According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal, Bangladesh has no fewer than four (4) active terrorist groups, one which is an al-Qaeda front, two which are Taliban oriented, and one which is Maoist in character.  The largest and strongest group appears to be Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), a Taliban-like group with al-Qaeda links which is opposed to all cultural events like cinema and wants women to always stay in the house. The Foundation for Defense of Democracies has put together some good resources on Is Bangladesh Becoming the Next al-Qaeda Haven?

AFGHANISTAN 
    This country was in a state of civil war for decades (see IISS Armed Conflict Database on Afghanistan or The Afghanistan Analyst for a more recent roundup), and the most recent civil war involved the Taliban, backed by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and previously Pakistan, against a loose collection of ethnic and religious factions known as the Northern Alliance. Until 9/11, the Alliance drew its primary support from Russia, China and Iran. The Northern Alliance ruled Afghanistan after the Soviet withdrawal in 1989 but civil conflict continued and the Taliban eventually drove the Alliance from power in 1996.  The Northern Alliance then started getting U.S. support, and more of it after 9/11, playing a key role in the start of the U.S.-led war on terrorism (Operation Enduring Freedom). The Taliban are fundamentalist Sunnis who oppose practically all that Shias stand for.  To the outsider, the differences may seem unimportant, but doctrinal disputes, as well as ethnic differences play well in Afghanistan (as elsewhere).  There were times when the Taliban and Iran almost went to war.  The U.S.-led war in Afghanistan was largely successful.  The campaign made significant inroads in busting cells and breaking down operations.  About 1,000 terrorism suspects were arrested and detained.  Many foreign assets were frozen or seized.  These actions seriously degraded al Qaeda who operated about 11 terrorist training camps there as well as maintained several underground mountain complexes like the one pictured below (although controversy surrounds exactly how extensive these complexes were):

There were about 35 underground tunnel complexes found in Afghanistan, most of them primarily in the eastern and southern part of the country.  The hide-outs included natural limestone caverns and tunnels as well as man-made passageways.  The natural passages consisted of ancient underground aqueducts which had long been the way to obtain water in the region.  Some of the complexes would stretch for miles and lie deep under the rock while others would be little more than bunkers just under the surface, 10 to 30 feet deep.  The one at Tora Bora was suspected to be the headquarters of Osama bin Laden, but did not turn out to be the vast underground "fortress of solitude" it was rumored to be.  The complexes served the mujahideen well in their war with the Soviets.  In 2006, the Afghani government announced plans to make Tora Bora into a tourist holiday destination.  For a good picture book, see Bahmanyar, M. (2004) Afghanistan Cave Complexes: 1979-2004. NY:Osprey.

    Who were the Taliban?  There is no formal recruitment process, but most Taliban come from the Pashtun regions of Afghanistan, Sunni Muslim Pashtuns being Afghanistan's largest ethnic group.  Pashtuns pride themselves on never having been subdued by an outside power (favorite proverb: a Pashtun is never at peace, except when he is at war).  Most were educated via Pakistani or Afghani madrassas under the influence of the Deobandi school of thought which emphasizes piety, austerity, an earlier-is-best jurisprudence, and doing jihad against imperialism (every evil).  Talibanism is a bit more fundamentalist than that, and in some respects is closer to Wahhabism because it plays off ethnic stereotypes as well as religious superiority.  The Taliban came to power in 1996, at the same time Osama bin Laden moved to Afghanistan from Sudan.  Bin Laden's alliance with the Taliban involved merging his elite 055 Brigade of Afghan Arabs into their army as well as helping them financially.  With Taliban cover, al-Qaeda would go on to commit multiple acts of terrorism worldwide, the most notable being the 2001 (9/11) attacks on America.  The Taliban were defeated by the allied invasion of Afghanistan as early as 2002, but by 2006, questions arose whether they had been fully defeated because a new kind of insurgency developed in the form of a neo-Taliban (Giustozzi 2007).  This insurgent Taliban is more decentralized and grass-roots organized at the village level, where a typical village cell has between 10 and 50 part-time fighters (pretty much any group of that size that wishes to call itself Taliban can do so).  Each cell runs its own intelligence, logistics, and population control activities with support from other village cells.  To relay messages, the cells use couriers and short-range radios with an extensive code system.  Some Taliban cells use the Internet.  They operate semi-independently, although there are local and regional command structures which occasionally disown a member for violating the rules.  Top leadership tends to have more grandiose goals than lower leadership, but what unites them is the cause of creating a "shadow government" to rival what they perceive as the West's "puppet government" in Kabul. 

    Waziristani chieftains in northwest Pakistan, bordering Afghanistan, have close ties to the Taliban, but the whole area is ruled mostly by tribal custom.  Waziristan is the small area in green (below): 

Waziristan is a place where the Taliban resurfaced and the Pakistanis have given up a war on (see 2004-2006 Waziristan conflict).  It is believed by many experts and authorities that it is the place where Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri are hiding.  Waziristan is technically a district in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) under the governance of Pakistan, but this has only been nominal governance.  Historically, the area has also been a major center for opium production and trafficking.  The Sept. 5, 2006 Waziristan Accord which ended the conflict has been called the terms of surrender by Pakistan to the Taliban and al-Qaeda, and others say a new Islamic Emirate of Waziristan was created.  Even worse than Waziristan is the FATA agency of Bajaur, long known as an al-Qaeda command and control center (See Bill Roggio's map of FATA).  South Waziristan students at madrassas were called "talibs" (whence the word Taliban), and this area tolerates Muslims (the Wazirs) killing other Muslims (the Mahsuds) for not being religious enough.

VIETNAM
    This country is a hard-line communist country that emerged from its war with the South (1957-1975) isolated, cratered, and largely defoliated. One million Vietnamese refugees made their way to the United States, avoiding reeducation camps. The U.S. cut off diplomatic relations, and succeeded in implementing worldwide economic and credit embargoes. The Soviet Union was Vietnam’s main economic ally in the post-war period while Vietnam maintained a large army (850,000 troops), fought border wars with China, and attacked Cambodia’s Khmer Rouge regime. The Vietnamese army is now streamlined (500,000 troops) for purely defensive purposes against all foreseeable threats (Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, China). Prisoner of war and missing in action groups have generated pressure against any normalization of relations until the Vietnamese provide a full accounting of U.S. POW’s and MIA’s. U.S. businesses have been allowed to open offices, but foreign investment in Vietnam is limited. There is a significant reserve of offshore oil.  Vietnamese officials have expressed a desire to establish better relations with the U.S. and the rest of the world, and appear to sincerely have economic development as a key priority.  Few signs of terrorist activity exist.

NEPAL (pronounced NAY-pall)
    Nepal is a landlocked country with close ties to both of its neighbours, India and China, as well as with Bangladesh, which shares no boundary with Nepal but is separated from Bangladesh by a narrow strip of land about 13 miles wide, called the Chicken's Neck (also the name for a boundary zone in Kashmir).  From time to time, Nepal gets caught up in Sino-Indian conflicts.  The most recent problems have involved Maoist rebels who control boundary zones and parts of the countryside while the government only controls the major cities.  Chaos sometimes comes unexpectedly, when in 2001, the Crown Prince got stoned and drunk and killed the whole royal family before killing himself.  Since then, the country has been considering getting rid of its monarchy and moving toward democracy (see 2006 Democracy Movement in Nepal).  The Maoist rebels, however, have established a strong presence, almost rivaling the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka.  Nepali folklore and music attract tourism, as does Mt Everest, the tallest mountain in the world, situated between Nepal and Tibet.  Nepali culture is highly tolerant of alcohol and drug use, and the country since the 1960s has attracted hippies (narco-tourists) because cannabis grows wild there.  Cannabis is technically illegal according to Nepalese law, but regularly smoked during Hindu festivals, especially those worshipping Shiva, the Hindu god of destruction and reproduction, who presumably smoked marijuana.  Since the Nepalese Civil War ended in 2006, the Maoist rebels have moved into the protection racket for local drug barons.     

SRI LANKA (pronounced sree-LAHNG-kuh)
    This is a poor island south of India formerly known as Ceylon (see IISS Armed Conflict Database on Sri Lanka).  About 75% of the people are Sinhalese-speaking, Buddhist-believing, 12% of the people are Tamil-speaking, Hindu-believing, and 8% of the people are Arab-speaking, Muslim-believing.  The Tamils have long hated the Sinhalese, and the Tamil Tigers, or Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), are a significant uniformed terrorist group there (see in-depth analysis of their form of terrorism at the Lecture on Religious Terrorism).  The background is that an exclusionary and politically dominant strain of Sinhalese nationalism has prevailed ever since 1956 when Sinhalese was declared the country’s official language, and the Tamils have faced an institutionalized anti-Tamil bias in education, employment, and government.  The heaviest violence erupted in the mid-1980s which was a period when the Tamil Tigers, aided by the diaspora, started building up military assets and engaging in conventional as well as terrorist tactics, including suicide bombing, a tactic used by the LTTE over 200 times.  In 1991, a LTTE suicide bomber assassinated the Indian prime minister.  Peace appears a distant prospect.   

JAPAN
    Japan, which consists of four main islands, has a 250,000 troop strength, $45 billion a year military capability, and is extensively supported by the U.S., has the distinction of being the place where bioterrorism erupted in the form of a 1995 Tokyo subway attack by a religious cult called Aum Shinrikyo.  Japan really needs to start thinking about beefing up its counterterrorism capability.  There's also popular support to get Japan's military autonomous once again. Japan's unique economy intertwines government and business. The two are so tightly wound together in most matters that the Japanese have to force themselves to think in terms of "private sector" and "public sector."  Japan is also unique in that it claims territory 1,000 miles out to sea.  Japan is also an economic superpower, but is not above resorting to economic espionage.

RUSSIA
    This country was discussed under the Europe area lecture, but it bears repeating that China-Russia (Sino-Soviet) relations have always been a problem, and they both back rival interests in South Asia (China-Pakistan and Russia-India).  Russia-American relations can be best described as good one year and bad the next.  The most common question students ask involves what countries now make up Russia, and the answer is that the former Soviet Union used to consist of fifteen (15) republics, and today, the largest of these republics (the one called Russia) belongs to both the Russian Federation (4 of the larger republics, now broken down into 7 federal districts) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (11 former republics).  Maps sometimes show CIS as part of Russia (technically, they are still under Russia's "orbit") or sometimes they only show the vast, northern expanse that is the Federation.  Either way, Russia is still the largest country in the world.  The politico-geographic subdivisions of Russia are somewhat complicated (see Wikipedia Entry on Subdivisions of Russia).  

THE STANS
    These countries were also discussed under the Europe area lecture, but the map is reproduced here with some extended commentary.

TAJIKISTAN (pronounced tah-jih-kih-STAN)
    This is one of five (5) Islamic republic "Stans" that were dominated by Russia for seven decades (the others being Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan).  Tajikistan went from impoverished Soviet republic to civil war zone when Moscow’s authority ended (see Tajikistan Civil War).  Islamic extremist groups of the Taliban variety have exploited ethnic divisions and taken control in some areas, launching cross-border operations.  The country is a major transshipment point for illicit drugs.  Borders areas with China are not well-defined.  Foreign troops, including U.S. troops, are stationed in the country to help provide stability.  Moscow maintains troops there, and U.S. forces began using Tajik airfields in September, 2001.  Government control is fragile.  It is the poorest of the Stans where about 60% of the population live in poverty.

UZBEKISTAN (pronounced ooz-beh-kih-STAN)
    Population-wise, this is the largest of the Stans, and everyone from Josef Stalin down has always known that Uzbekistan was the hub of geopolitics of this region.  The Islamic threat is greatest here (Strauss 2006), but Uzbekistan possesses the largest military force in the Central Asian region.  This country is controlled by a regime which, in recent years, has been fighting a rebel group calling itself the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), one of the region's major exporters of terrorism. Each spring, there are usually major battles between IMU guerrillas and Uzbek forces. Bombings and assassinations also take place. Western intelligence agencies say the IMU has direct ties with Osama bin Laden. U.S. military advisors began training Uzbek forces to deal with the IMU in 1999, and have used an airbase in the country to support U.S. actions in the region.  The stated objective of the IMU is to depose President Karimov and establish a more religious Islamic state, not just in Uzbekistan but an Islamic Stansuperstate.  In 2005, the country had a massive uprising (see 2005 civil unrest in Uzbekistan) and shortly afterwards asked the U.S. to vacate its airbase (known as K-2 or Karshi-Khanabad).  

KAZAKHSTAN (pronounced kuh-zahk-STAHN)
    This country is sitting on top of the world's last great oil discovery, and there is lots of mineral wealth here.  Kazakhstan is the ninth-largest nation in the world, equivalent in size to the whole of western Europe.  Some estimates are that the untapped oil reserves would rival that of Saudi Arabia.  The country is fairly stable, but has poverty problems and many local leaders who are corrupt tribal chiefs, surrounded by cronies, security, and their own military who share whatever spoils come their way among themselves.  The president is Nursultan Nazarbayev, and his regime is the only regime the country has known since it became independent.  Despite occasional allegations of corruption in the form of kickbacks, Nazarbayev's regime is considered moderate and pro-Western, and further, he maintains a healthy balance between the United States and Russia, opening oil investment to both countries equally although Great Britain is the country's largest foreign investor.  Kazakstan is the only Central Asian state whose constitution does not assign a special status to Islam.  It plays up its Muslim heritage while at the same time cracking down on Muslim extremism.  It tries to be a semi-secular state which sees itself as a bridge between the Muslim East and Christian West.  In 2006, Borat may have turned the country into a cinematic joke with his comedy movie, Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan, but there is nothing funny about this emerging super-giant in Central  Asia.

The capital city of Kazakhstan is called Astana.  It has exceptionally cold winters that last about six months long.  As oil money has started rolling in, the President is spending it on architecture, in hopes of making it the capital of all central Asia.  Almost all of the money being spent is on palaces and government buildings, but the most interesting project is the creation of what is called Khan Shatyry, a giant transparent tent over the city which will turn most of it into a resort-like area. The architectural quality is quite high, in what is called the ethno-postmodernist style. The idea is to recreate summer year-round. For this oil rich state which is increasingly becoming a global energy player, cash is not a problem.

TURKMENISTAN (pronounced turk-MEH-nih-stan)
    This country's strongman, President Saparmurad Niyazov, suddenly passed away on December 21, 2006.  He was addicted to power, and power means a lot in this region mostly governed by clan loyalties, where the concept of "headman" calling the shots remains established practice.  Niyazov was one of the world's worst dictators, running the country via a cult of personality.  His picture was on all the currency, statues of him were everywhere, and his profile always appeared in the corner of every TV screen.  He renamed the month of January after himself, and required his biography and philosophy to be required reading in schools.  Forced labor, media control, and political oppression make up the legacy of his rule.  It is uncertain what will happen in this country now, what with Russia, China and the US making offers and counter-offers for gaining access to Turkmenistan's gas reserves.  The country already has gas deals with Iran and China, but before he died, Niyazov said that Turkmenistan recently discovered a super-giant gas field.  In late 2006, the State Security Council appointed a fellow rumored to be Niyazov's illegitimate son to be acting president, a fellow named Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedow.    

KYRGYZSTAN (pronounced keer-gih-STAN)
    This country's longtime president, Askar Akayev, was deposed from power in a 2005 "Tulip Revolution" because he claimed to always have an interest in forming a democracy, but his so-called democratic re-elections were considered a sham by international observers.  He regularly imprisoned political rivals and silenced opposition movements.  He clearly saw the country as his personal fiefdom.  Despite this, the U.S., following 9/11, was able to work with him to establish a beachhead for incursions into Afghanistan and Iraq.  He was less amenable to the U.S. request to station AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) aircraft in the country.  The current Kyrgyz President is Kurmanbek Bakiyev, who has called for reviewing the Manas base agreement with the U.S., Manas being the lone US military base in all of Central Asia -- close to the Chinese border of Xinjiang.  The review was called for after the accidental killing of a Kyrgyz fuel-truck driver by a US serviceman at the Manas Air Base.

INTERNET RESOURCES
ABCNews.com's Country Profiles
Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies
CFR Backgrounder on Terror Groups in India
CIA World Factbook
Electronic Embassy
European Internet Network Regional News
Frank Hoffmann's Korean Studies Portal
Global Conflicts Overview
Harvard's Central Eurasian Studies Center
India's Boundary Disputes with China, Nepal & Pakistan
Kashmir WWW Virtual Library
Library of Congress Country Studies
Moscow Times
Nationmaster Crime and Illicit Drug Database
North Korea News and Military Affairs
Regions in Conflict that Border on Afghanistan
South Asian Terrorism Portal
State Dept. Counterterrorism Office Area Overviews
State Department Travel Advisories
Terrorism in Southeast Asia (pdf)
The Taliban: An Organizational Analysis (pdf)
Wikipedia: History of the Soviet Union
Wikipedia: History of People's Republic of China
Wikipedia: India
Wikipedia: Terrorism in India
Wikipedia: Terrorism in Kashmir

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