Disasters Overview

OVERVIEW OF NATURAL AND UNNATURAL DISASTERS
"How will you cope with a problem when you don't know what the problem will be" (Meno's Paradox)

Disasters occur when natural, technical, or human-induced phenomena impact on vulnerable socio-economic systems. By definition, a disaster can only occur in a constructed or built environment where human activity has taken place. In other words, a disaster cannot occur in an uninhabited area that has never been touched by humans, or as Loretti (2000) puts it: "if people are not involved, there is no disaster." There is some controversy between sociologists and non-sociologists over whether research ought to focus on people first or the source of the disaster first (this being mostly a theoretical debate in the emergency management field), but it is generally accepted that the study of disaster sheds light on important processes of social order and cohesion. Disaster reduction is a moral imperative because communities suffer and people suffer. There are important socio-economic benefits from disaster reduction, not the least of which are opportunities to reduce the development gap between rich and poor nations. These objectives, in addition to any global perspective which conceives of the planet as victim, means that a disaster anywhere is a disaster everywhere. Also, of course, mega-disasters hold the potential for having "WMD-like effects" around the world. The best way to understand disasters is to read descriptions of them, and/or look at pictures. We've provided some pictures, but in addition, the reader's attention is directed to the many hyperlinks in this lecture which provide valuable reading, and of special significance in this regard are those disasters which hold "classic" status and/or hold records in more than one category. It is indeed the case that by studying mega-disasters, one can learn a lot about plain, ordinary disasters.

Other than obtaining a good, solid, contextual background of individual disasters, the student should also be concerned with the categorization problem in this field. It may seem academic, but there is a need for serious theoretical work over issues as to whether "lumping" or "splitting" is better for categorizing different kinds of disasters, for analytical and hypothesis testing purposes. There are many ways to categorize different kinds of disasters. One way is provided by Alexander (2002) as follows:

Another way of classifying disasters is to distinguish between natural ("Acts of God") and accidental (man-made). This is the method used by Hough (2004) in his global security approach, and it will be the one used here. It is customary in the field of security studies to have an almost exclusive focus on accidental disasters because they are the most preventable. It is also customary for security studies to argue that safety ought to be more securitized. However, natural disasters are also preventable if the right machines are in place and working, but this technological "fix" presupposes a "vertical" approach to the problem. The reader might remember or know from previous discussions in health security about "horizontal" versus "vertical" approaches. In a nutshell, a horizontal approach tries to address the root, broad causes of a problem, and a vertical approach tries to zero in on the specific manifestations of a problem. In disaster security, as opposed to health security, one is more likely to find vertical approaches taken, as evident by the existence of specialized agencies and organizations which zero in on just one type of disaster, like hurricane centers or tsunami institutes. The field is very specialized.

The study of accidental disasters exposes as much, if not more, insight into the failings of socio-political institutions as natural disasters. The study of both is important because as "classic" disasters such as the Titanic disaster, the Chernobyl meltdown, and the Bhopal disaster have shown, unforeseen dangers almost always result from a combination of human and machine fallibility. Even "horizontalists" in the global security field believe the socio-political aspects of global disaster management can be adequately addressed in technical ways. Nature's contribution, in this sense, can be seen as contributing to an understanding of the deep, structural deficiencies in societies which make a disaster a disaster. For example, the field is inundated by research efforts to construct rating systems and early warning programs. These systems and programs are not discussed here, nor is the topic of nascent (emerging) international disaster law. Those topics are best left for other discussions in other lectures in other courses, and for now, it is simply suggested the reader take a look at the global ISDR organization or the sub-global EADRCC for an overview of efforts toward better coordinated warning systems and programs.

1. Windstorms are the #1 natural disaster (and this list also reflects a rank order in terms of typical death rates, with #1 being the #1 killer globally, for instance). In North America, windstorms are called hurricanes. In East Asia, they are called typhoons. Both are types of cyclones. All three terms are words for the same phenomenon. However, a windstorm which occurs inland is called a tornado, and tornadoes do not really have any "season," and may or may not have a tropical component in their causality, like the other three types, but hurricanes do spawn tornadoes. The deadliest part of a windstorm is usually the storm surge, where winds create huge waves and sudden flooding. A massive storm surge killed 300,000 people in Bangladesh during 1970. Some of the world's deadliest tornados have also happened in Bangladesh, but the deadliest tornado outbreak of all was the 1974 Super Outbreak across the midwestern United States. Among other windstorms, the costliest was Hurricane Katrina of 2005, and the deadliest one was the Great Hurricane of 1780, followed by Hurricane Mitch of 1998.

2. Floods are the #2 killer globally. They often occur as secondary effects of other disasters, but regardless of how they happen, drowning is the main cause of death. It can be said there are two kinds of floods: flash floods (where the capacity of the ground to hold water is exceeded); and riverine floods (where a body of water comes to burst its banks). It's a close call, but riverine floods tend to be the most dangerous. The worst floods in living memory are the 2007 South Asian floods, which affected (and are still affecting) India, Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh.

3. Earthquakes are the #3 killer globally. They occur along fault lines of the earth's tectonic plates with locations predicted fairly well, but scale not entirely predictable. An earthquake is the type of disaster which clearly reveals the vulnerability of socio-political institutions. The deadliest phase of an earthquake often occurs during the aftershocks, which is usually when the so-called "knock-on effects" (incidental or secondary effects) take place, like fires, falling buildings, landslides, and liquefaction (soil takes on the properties of heavy liquid). With the possible exception of flooding, earthquakes have been the most underwritten subject of government research and funding (Baer et al. 2005). The nation of China holds the record for the deadliest earthquakes, most of which occurred hundreds of years ago with the most recent being the 1976 Tangshan earthquake. In terms of both lethality and magnitude, the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake holds records. Worst-case scenario: a massive sea floor earthquake which unleashes the vast amount of methane frozen deep beneath the ocean waters, releasing massive methane/water vapor clouds which could auto-ignite the earth's atmosphere in what would literally be a gigantic fuel-air explosion.

4. Avalanches are the #4 natural disaster. There are many causes of avalanches, but they often occur as what disaster managers call a "knock-on effect" from another disaster (like a rainstorm). However, they also occur quite frequently by themselves for no reason other than the apparent force of gravity. It should not be thought that snow avalanches are the most dangerous, since the ones that have historically killed the most people have involved ice, mud, or debris. Most of the world's deadliest avalanches have occurred in Peru, but deadly snow avalanches occur with some regularity in the Austrian and Swiss Alps. In snow country, an avalanche can take one of three forms: loose snow; slab; or slush; and the kind which causes the most fatality is the slab, which consists of a strong, stiff layer of snow; i.e., a snowpack; which is exactly what many winter sports enthusiasts are drawn to.

5. Extreme temperatures (heat waves & cold waves) are the #5 natural disaster. Heat waves kill mostly through heat stroke, and cold waves usually kill through hypothermia or frostbite. It depends upon where one lives as to which type is the most dangerous. In the United States, more people are killed by cold waves than heat waves, but in other parts of the world, heat waves are relatively more dangerous. Some countries, like India, have both fairly often, sometimes in the same year. The 2007 European heat wave was notable for affecting many European countries at the same time, and drew some needed attention to the problem. A heat wave can also lead to drought, which is a recurring world problem that has killed millions. With regard to the opposite problem -- cold waves -- it is shameful how many people take cold waves in stride. Those who live on the North American continent are so used to cold waves that they bemusedly refer to them as snaps or freezes, accompanied by the obligatory school closings and warnings of crop failure and risks to pets/livestock. Supposedly it would take a freakish event like the "1816 Year Without Summer" to wake people up to the real dangers of cold waves.

6. Tsunamis (pronounced tsu' na me) are the #6 natural disaster. These are sea waves that stretch out about 100 miles and travel great distances very fast. They are often impossible to detect because sometimes the surface only shows the wave to be a foot or two high. Earthquakes, landslides, and volcanic eruptions often trigger tsunamis. The aforementioned 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake spawned the world's deadliest tsunami. The death toll from a tsunami is not a pretty sight. About all you can do is try to tag and bag the bodies in temporary mortuaries and keep ice and sheets over them to cut down on decomposition and infection. Tsunamies are distinct from a related phenomenon called "rogue waves" (also called freak, monster, or extreme waves) which spontaneously appear in the deep ocean during perfectly clear waters. Whereas rogue waves are often the likely cause of the sudden, inexplicable disappearance of ocean-going vessels, tsunamies mostly cause on-shore damage. Rogue waves rise to about 100 feet in height, which is about the same height at the typical crest of a tsunami, unless of course, one is talking about a so-called "megatsunami" which rises over 300 feet, and there have only been three of them in recorded history.

7. Volcanic eruptions are the #7 natural disaster. A volcano can kill in many different ways, ranging from the lava itself to the hot, poisonous gases emitted. Volcanoes also sometimes spew out large objects at high speed. There are 16 so-called "Decade Volcanoes" which merit attention for historical reasons and their proximity to populated areas. The deadliest volcano in the 20th century was the Mount Pelée eruption in Martinique during 1902. Volcanoes emit a number of things which are hazardous to humans and planets in general. Besides the lava, pyroclastic flows (fast-moving clouds of hot gas), and flying rocks, a significant number of poisonous aerosol gases are emitted by volcanoes. Gas emissions from volcanoes are a major contributor to acid rain. Volcanic eruptions can also create new land where there was none before, and in extreme cases, like with one of Jupiter's moons, there is so much volcanic activity that the surface of that moon is continually reshaping.

8. Forest fires are the #8 natural disaster. They occur when a combination of conditions are right, such as drought and high wind. Two countries are particularly prone to forest fires: Australia and the United States, but fires also occur fairly regularly in Europe, Indonesia, and Greece. Although modern science holds that fires are a natural part of the ecosystem in most wildlife areas, it is suspected that up to 80% of forest fires may ultimately be of man-made origin, and in fact, authorities suspect that terrorists may have been behind the 2007 Greek forest fires. Clearly, some areas suffer from too much fire, and in any event, fire does not always have positive benefits.

9. Insect swarms are the #9 natural disaster. Scientists who analyze fossil records suspect that long ago, insects ruled the earth and devoured everything in their path. An "explosion" (or swarm) involves a vast increase in the number of insect pests, the most common pests being locusts, mosquitoes, butterflies, moths, beetles, bugs, bees, and dragonflies. No one knows the exact reason for such events, but rising global temperatures are implicated. Insect populations increase when temperatures rise rapidly. Warmer weather in northern climates leads to insect migration up from the tropics. Insects migrate in search of food, and rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere make leaves less nutritious because they contain less proteins, so consequently, insects are forced to eat more to acquire the nutrients they need. The photo at right is of the Canary Islands (off the NW coast of Africa) which in 2004 was invaded by an estimated 100 million hungry locusts, prompting authorities to order a state of alert and massive evacuations. In the nearby country of Mauritania, locusts are the primary cause of starvation.

10. Asteroid impacts are the #10 natural disaster. Sure, the big impact events only happen about every 14,000 years, and the planet killers only come around every 300 million years, but stuff falling out of the sky happens all the time (most of it from nature). 500 meteorites strike the Earth's surface every year. At least ten, big near-misses from big asteroids have occurred during 1994-2007. A large object striking Earth would inject huge quantities of dust into the stratosphere, depress temperatures around the globe, and lead to massive crop loss and the possible breakdown of society. The death toll might be in the billions. Outer space, it turns out, is pretty crowded with a lot of junk. NASA estimates that there are 912 "Potentially Hazardous Asteroids" out there threatening earth at present. In addition, there are an estimated 7000 "Near Earth Objects" traveling about in space. Even a near-miss is significant because it almost always creates some degree of electromagnetic interference in the Earth's magnetosphere, triggering other natural disasters, firestorms, and generally having unknown effects. Advance warning may be zero in some cases.

There's a lot more to disasters than natural disasters. Accidents will happen. Some have variable degrees of "malice aforethought," but the most common mental states are recklessness and negligence. For classification purposes, these kinds of disaster will be discussed below in five (5) categories: transportation; structural; industrial; scientific; and personal injury.

Transportation accidents most often involve airlines, ferries, boats, railways, and roads. The worst airline disaster in history was the 1977 Tenerife collision in the Canary Islands when two, fully-loaded 747s taxied into one another on the runway. The worst ferry disaster (and deadliest transport disaster, and worst peace-time maritime disaster in history) was the 1987 MV Doña Paz incident in the Philippines when an overcrowded ferry boat struck a oil tanker, burst into flames, sank immediately, and only 21 of 4,000+ passengers could hold their breath long enough underwater to swim to safety. The whole thing happened so fast there was no time to launch lifeboats. By contrast, the NTSB reported in 2006 that nearly 90% of American transportation deaths involved recreational boats, personal automobiles, and (non-commercial) planes. Railway and road disasters have one thing in common -- many incidents tend to involve tunnels. Tunnels are built in various ways, and are some of the most costliest megaprojects. The main danger inside a tunnel is fire, which is exactly what happened during the world's worst tunnel disaster, the Salang Tunnel Fire of 1982 in Afghanistan. Not enough information is known about what happened, but a Russian munitions truck is suspected as being involved. Estimates are that over 2,000 people died, mostly Afghanis. The incident stands as the world's deadliest tunnel incident.

Structural accidents generally involve bridge or building collapse, although there is a long history of death tolls from fires (in churches and theatres during the 19th and early 20th century and nightclubs during the late 20th century). Sports stadiums are also known to collapse. Probably the most well-known venue in this category involves Mecca, where millions of Muslims make the pilgrimage every year during the month of Hajj (see Incidents during the Hajj) to visit the Masjid al-Haram. All sorts of accidents happen there. In 1990, a pedestrian tunnel collapsed, killing 1,426 pilgrims. In 1998, the one and only, two-story bridge to the "stoning of the devil" station collapsed, and even though the Saudis built a reinforced, four-story bridge, there have been several stampedes and people crushed to death since at the exact same area, the Jamarat Bridge. Almost every year since 2001, hundreds of pilgrims die in Mecca from congested conditions and inadequate structural facilities. The Saudis themselves often suffer from disease outbreaks afterward. In 2006, a fairly new, four story hostel in Mecca collapsed for no apparent reason at all, and the death toll is unknown since the Saudis have not released those numbers.

Industrial accidents (like the aforementioned classical disasters at Bhopal and Chernobyl) generally involve the chemical or petroleum industries. Bhopal was a chemical leak, and at least one writer (Weir 1987) has coined the term "Bhopal syndrome" to refer to the many unreported cases of chemical plant "leaks" around the world. According to this line of research, investigators often uncover chemical plants surreptitiously burning off hazardous waste at night, especially in underdeveloped countries. These uncovered incidents are called "less visible disasters," as opposed to the more visible complaints and regulations that arise from, say, an asbestos scare (see Asbestos Around the World). With petroleum spills, most people are familiar with the well-known Exxon Valdez Oil Spill of 1989, which still results in opposition to drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), but major oil spills (like major nightclub fires) happen almost every year, the industry, however, having ways to define what amounts to a "major" spill based on things like color and sheen (see Oil Spill). Industrial accidents seem to occur in bunches. For example, in 1984, three (3) major industrial disasters took place in India, Brazil, and Mexico, all at about the same time. Government concern over the spillover effects from industrial disasters began shortly after the 1976 Seveso Incident.

Scientific accidents are mindboggling, especially when they involve bio-medical research or top-secret atomic research which can go horribly wrong. People will always fear Grey Goo (biological nanotechnology), genemod organisms, and artificial intelligence projects which make up most of the dangerous bio-medical research, but atomic experiments, often hailed as the grandest of pursuits, may be the most dangerous. For example, take supercollider research which involves sending particle beams in opposite directions along a lengthy underground circular track and accelerating them to near light speed while directing the particles with superconducting magnets to points where they are likely to collide. Such colllisions unleash all sorts of dark matter, strange matter, extra dimensions, and Planck-size subatomic particles. One of the particles scientists hope to find is the so-called "God particle" also known as the Higgs Boson. Very little is understood about the physics surrounding this particle, and the Higgs field or ocean that is supposed to exist, is not well-known at all. No one can observe Planck-sized particles directly today, if ever. One can only trust that the physicists diddling with such things have some idea of how dangerous their work is.

Personal injury accidents are a leading cause of death, but thankfully, the International Labor Organization (ILO) has helped see progress made in worker safety. While only about a half million people are killed every year in accidents on the job, over a million people a year are killed while travelling to and from their jobs (Hough 2004). Road traffic fatality rates are high in any country. It's safer to go to work by rail than by personal vehicle. Car crashes or car accidents kill an estimated 1.2 million people worldwide each year, and injure about forty times this number. The second leading cause of death via personal injury involves cooking accidents (this excludes firearms from consideration), and little is known about this phenomenon, but it appears to be due from either inattention (in the developed world) to stoves or a combustible rise in ambient temperature in congregated kitchen areas (in the developing world). People also somehow drown in their homes or while boating, so much so that in 2002, a first ever World Congress on Drowning was held in Amsterdam.

It largely goes undisputed that natural disasters have increased in number in recent decades. The charity group, Oxfam, in 2007 reported that disasters have quadrupled in the last two decades. The world suffered about 120 natural disasters per year in the early 1980s, and currently suffers about 500 per year. The number of people affected by extreme natural disasters has increased by almost 70 percent (from 174 million a year between 1985 to 1994 to 254 million people a year between 1995 to 2004). Likewise, floods and wind-storms have increased from 60 events in 1980 to 240 a year in 2007, with flooding up six-fold. However, the number of geothermal events, such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, has barely changed.

There are many reasons for the increased number of disasters beyond the crazy notion that the weather is somehow out to get us. One, it may very well be that better reporting is the ultimate cause of the increase. A lot more organizations and people are devoted to recording and documenting disasters than before. Two, the world has seen an increase in population, and along with this increase, there is a growing tendency for people to move to coastal areas, and build residences in high danger areas. The continual building of structures next to foreseeable dangers (like building high schools next to highways, or glass skyscrapers on top of earthquake zones) will likely only stop when society gets tired of all the premises liability lawsuits every year. A premises liability lawsuit basically holds an establishment liable for defects in construction, maintenance, and inadequate security. Premises security lawsuits are among the fastest growing segment of personal injury lawsuits, second only to the general negligence (slip-and-fall) cases commonly brought against landlords (Kaminsky 1995). Thousands of self-styled security experts make their living every year testifying as forensic experts in cases of premises liability.

Only a few architectural building codes have been upgraded since 9/11 to better prepare for the next attack by nature or man (Wible 2006). The construction industry (which drives almost 80% of the U.S. economy) is well-known for its tendency to allow for "acceptable risk." However, code changes have been most prominently made in standoff distances and other factors having to do with blast impact and progressive collapse, particularly when the structure in question holds a reasonable expectation of being a terrorist primary or "trophy" target. Yet even in a post-Katrina age, most Americans have yet to buy into the idea that there are some self-protective measures they can take by themselves, beforehand. It is unknown how extensive this consumer refusal to be self-protective is globally.

The insurance industry is in an interesting situation when it comes to natural disasters. Insurance disputes are common after any large-scale disasters, and insurance laws vary from state to state as to whether or not a policyholder can claim bad faith when it comes to adjustment in the field and the timeliness of responding to claims. Some insurers advance funds to a claimant; but others don't. Losses caused by wind, fire, looting and vandalism are generally covered, while losses caused by flooding are generally not. However, in many disasters, the primary damage may be caused by wind and/or wind-driven rain (instead of the flood), so if a covered peril causes an excluded peril, then coverage may be available. Otherwise, if one of the primary causes is an excluded peril (e.g., the fine print in an insurance contract), there is no "concurrent" causation despite a legal finding of "proximate" causation. Hence, a claimant can win in court, but still lose the insurance settlement. Additional issues include the fact that many businesses file additional business interruption claims (caused by the unwillingness or inability of civil authorities to repair the road or infrastructure to the business quick enough). Property owners are also known for inflating their claims in numerous ways, such as with lost valuable papers and records.

Many nations have a tendency to place key installations and facilities in disaster-prone areas. In the United States, for example, the Tampa Bay site of MacDill Air Force Base and the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) is extremely vulnerable to hurricane damage. Tampa Bay could be the next New Orleans. Other military assets located in Florida are also vulnerable to extreme weather events, such as the U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) in Miami, and in 1992, Hurricane Andrew did such damage to Homestead Air Force Base in Miami that it never reopened. In 2004, damage from Hurricane Ivan kept Pensacola Naval Air Station closed for almost a year. The Caribbean nations are especially vulnerable to disasters, and a mega-disaster there could mean massive evacuations and migration. In a similar vein, South Asia and Africa are prone to many disasters that tax the capabilities of many nations to provide humanitarian aid.

In addition, disasters (as well as climate change) open the door for old rivalries between nations to re-emerge. It is sometimes said that two things have caused war over the years -- religion and resources. As a recent example, in 2007, as soon as people became aware that melting Arctic ice would create a new (and profitable) northern sea route over over Canada and Russia, the Russians laid claim to the North Pole as well as Northwest passage rights. The Canadians claim it is theirs; and the Americans claim the new-found waters are international waters. While a war over the North Pole isn't likely, the point is that geographic changes wrought by disasters can prompt international conflict. The U.S. is not on strong ground here, having never ratified the Law of the Sea Treaty; hence the United States risks not being party to any adjudicating body which will determine which countries have rights to the Arctic's new-found waters.

PRINTED RESOURCES
Alexander, D. (2002). Principles of emergency planning and management. NY: Oxford Univ. Press.
Baer, M., Heron, K., Morton, O. & Ratliff, E. (2005). Safe: The race to protect ourselves in a newly dangerous world. NY: HarperCollins.
Hough, P. (2004). Understanding global security. NY: Routledge.
Kaminsky, A. (1995). A complete guide to premises security litigation. Washington DC: ABA.
Loeb, P., Talley, W. & Zlatoper, T. (1994). Causes and deterrents of transportation accidents. NY: Quorum Books. [available online]
Loretti, A. (2000). "The health sector in disaster reduction and emergency management." Keynote address to International Public Health Congress, Istanbul, October 8-12.
Quarantelli, E. (1989). "Conceptualizing disasters from a sociological perspective." International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters 7: 243-51.
Quarantelli, E. (2003). A half century of social science disaster research. Newark: Disaster Research Center.
Weir, D. (1987). The Bhopal syndrome. London: Earthscan.
Wible, R. (2006). Architectural security codes and guidelines. NY: McGraw Hill.

Last updated: Mar 31, 2008
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