CRIME SCENE RECONSTRUCTION
"Science is nothing more than the a posteriori reconstruction of exis" (Albert Einstein)

    Crime reconstruction (aka crime scene reconstruction) is a fairly new area of study that became popular in the 1990s which many people loosely associate with profiling, psychological autopsy, or equivocal death analysis.  Certainly, there are similarities between the four methods, but there are important differences.  Profiling, for example, has its origins in the 1974 creation of the FBI's Behavioral Science Unit.  Linkage analysis or signature analysis are subfields of profiling that have the closest ties to crime reconstruction.  Psychological autopsy is a term first coined in 1977 by the Los Angeles Medical Examiner's Office to investigate suicide cases (Shneidman 1977).  Equivocal death analysis (EDA), sometimes called equivocal death evaluation, is a term that first appeared during the 1989 USS Iowa incident in which Clayton Hartwig presumably blew himself up.  Something is "equivocal" (as opposed to unequivocal, or certain) when conclusions lend themselves to different interpretations.  Usually, the mode of death is equivocal (Ebert 1987), but Annon (1995) states it is when the manner of death is open to question.

     Reconstruction involves the use of scientific method, logical reasoning, sources of information on people, criminology, victimology, and experience or skill to interpret the events that surround the commission of a crime.  Bevel & Gardner (2001) define it as determining the most probable sequence of events.  Reconstruction begins when detectives conduct a walk-through of a crime scene, simulating the events that may have happened in their minds.  They sometimes call it getting a "feel" for the crime scene, but the process is as much cognitive as emotional.  They are attempting to prove and disprove any sequence of events that may have happened.  Some argue it has been a part of detective work for a long time (O'Hara & O'Hara 1973) and is what Osterburg & Ward (2000) call reconstructing the past. Although crime scene reconstruction involves walking through a crime scene, it should not be confused with crime scene analysis (or investigation) which is a standard part of police work.  We are concerned here with forensic science, not investigative science.

    Reconstruction is frequently done by senior criminalists, senior detectives, retired investigators, and a loose conglomeration of consultants from fields as diverse as anthropology (Mannheim 1999), sociology (Sanders 1974), history (Winks 1969), religion (Woodward 1990), and engineering (Carper 2001).  Most consultants (including profilers) can be best utilized by visiting the crime scene while fresh, but they can sometimes work with information and documentation afterwards involving the physical evidence, witness statements, and the reports of other experts.  Information such as the angles of shots, length and width of bloodstains, and wound patterns are highly important to most experts.

    It is important to note that reconstruction is NOT the same as re-creating the crime scene or re-enacting the crime scene.  Crime reenactment has nothing to do with criminalistics or scientific principles.  Reenactment is typically seen in courtrooms when defense lawyers stage a jury show or present some sort of computer-animated virtual reality presentation to bolster their version of what they say happened.  The rules of forensic law are quite strict on such demonstrations, and in fact, the rules for demonstrative evidence are deserving of some extended discussion, as follows:

THE RULES ON DEMONSTRATIVE EVIDENCE

     The days are gone when courts took juries on expensive field trips to the crime scene. Just about anything they need to see can be accomplished with the use of exhibits, models, reconstructions, videotapes, and animations. Almost anything "visual" ("sound" still enjoys certain Fifth Amendment protections) can be presented in modern courts (under certain rules) and the effects are dramatic since people retain 87% of what they see and only 10% of what they hear.  Visual exhibits generally fall into one of two (2) categories: (1) real evidence; or (2) demonstrative evidence.  So-called "real" evidence is evidence that, in a sense, speaks for itself, as when the prosecutor holds up a bag containing the murder weapon, asks the police officer "Is this the weapon you found?" and then enters it as "Exhibit A."  Even though it is authenticated by a witness, real evidence is separate, distinct, and doesn't rely upon a witness' testimony. It has the weight of being additional evidence and can serve many purposes.
     Demonstrative evidence is evidence that illustrates or helps explain oral testimony, or recreates a tangible thing, occurrence, event, or experiment. Scientific evidence falls into this category, as when a toxicologist testifies that the victim died of lead poisoning and refers to a chart of the human body showing the circulatory pathways that the toxin traveled. Visual aids of this type are intimately tied to the credibility of the witness who testified with them, and although they are not separate pieces of evidence, like real evidence, a jury can usually view them again while it deliberates.  Here's a list of some (not all) of the things that can be used as demonstrative evidence:

  • plaster casts or molds

  • scale models

  • maps, charts, diagrams, and drawings

  • police composites, mug shots, sketches

  • photographs

  • microscopic enlargements

  • videotapes

  • computer reconstruction or animation

  • scientific tests or experiments

    (1) The most general rule is that there must be some other piece of evidence -- a fact, an object, or testimony -- that needs to be illustrated or demonstrated. Presentation is actually a two-stage process: first some issue of fact, then the explanation or demonstration stage. Demonstrative evidence is intended to be an adjunct to testimony.
    (2) The next most general rule involves the foundational requirements for demonstrative evidence. Certain preliminary steps must be followed such as authentication and accuracy. This is known as "laying the foundation" and is mandatory whenever any scientific expertise is about to be forthcoming. Foundational requirements (other than those dealing with the expertise of the person) usually involve:

  • authentication -- the demonstrative evidence should convey what it is meant to convey. What it conveys must not alter, distort, or change the appearance or condition of something in any significant way. A computer enhanced photograph, for example, to make a crime scene area look lighter than it actually was is probably inadmissible. There are specific rules, however, that do allow computer enhancements under some circumstances.

  • representational accuracy -- the demonstrative evidence should fairly depict the scale, dimensions, and contours of the underlying evidence. A photograph or chart with some small section of it enlarged to focus in on is probably inadmissible. This is followed rigorously whenever comparisons (such as between two samples of handwriting) are made so that any lay person can compare the evidence oculis subjecta fidelibus.

  • identification --  the demonstrative evidence must be an exact match to the underlying evidence or the testimony illustrated. This requirement is the same as with real evidence. For example, an expert witness is about to testify using a enlarged photograph (to scale) clearly showing the outline of a bootprint with a unique manufacturer mark on the bottom of it. The victim (or police officer if the victim didn't survive) who was boot-stomped by it must identify that mark as the one that boot-stomped her. It's often said that demonstrative evidence inherently favors the prosecution, and for two reasons. One, there's usually NO stipulation allowed. A stipulation is when either side gives up on some issue at some point in trial and says "We'll stipulate that our client owns a boot with that particular mark, your Honor" for example.  Instead, the defense, who might want to move the trial along has to suffer through a long, drawn-out, embarrassing, and potentially damaging situation. Two, usually along with the process of laying the foundation for demonstrative evidence, the jury also gets to look at what is being authenticated, represented, or identified. If an objection to the foundation (or later challenge for prejudice) is successful, the exhibit is taken down, but the impression remains on the minds of the jurors, even if the judge instructs the jury to disregard it. This is called jury view, and some attorneys consider it to have certain tactical advantages. It's also one of the reasons why pretrial Frye or Daubert hearings are so important.

    (3) The next most general rule is that demonstrative evidence must pass the "three hurdles" of admissibility: relevancy; materiality; and competency.  Despite some disagreements over the precise meaning of these terms, relevancy means the demonstrative evidence has something to do with the reason the trial is being held, a point at law, a question of guilt or innocence, etc.  Materiality means it goes directly to the purpose of illustration, is easily understandable, produces no wayward inferences, and is not just an exercise in "educating" the court or jury. Competency means it's the kind of thing that fits with the decor and decorum of the court, is on the up-and-up, ethical, and doesn't taint the court or subvert the justice process.
    (4) The last most general rule is that demonstrative evidence must pass an additional balancing test for relevancy -- a weighing of what is probative/prejudicial. Probative is what is relevant to "cinch" the case for the prosecution by anticipating all defenses. Prejudicial is whatever inflames the passions and prejudices of the jury. This rule necessarily favors the defendant, in rooted in the principle of fundamental fairness, and protects them from unwarranted inferences about bad character or habit.  It's important to understand that the weighing of what probative/prejudicial varies with each and every case, and is not an arbitrary standard. It should NOT be referred to as the "gruesomeness" standard, as it sometimes is called. The mere fact that a photograph, for example, shows a shocking crime scene does not automatically make it gruesome or inflammatory. The courts have also ruled that a photo of a nude, bloodstained body is not inadmissible, but innocuous. Autopsy photos are another matter, and depend upon how much cutting and opening the forensic physician has made. In each case, the intent, principal value or effect of the evidence is to be judged as prejudicial, not so much the evidence itself. An extension of this makes it prejudicial error to dwell unnecessarily long on such evidence.

    There are more guidelines for specific kinds of evidence, involving established practices or procedures for the presentation of various types of demonstrative evidence. In this respect, practices may vary considerably by jurisdiction, but in general, here are some of the specifics:
    (1) Plaster casts, molds, and models -- these are most admissible when viewable in all dimensions. Three-dimensional is always better than two-dimensional. Whatever construction material is used doesn't matter. Models of the crime scene are a regular feature of trials, and models that are not precisely to scale will also sometimes be admitted if they are professionally made and presented. An attorney, for example, cannot take a Styrofoam head and stab a knife through it in order to demonstrate the attack on the victim. Further, no one is usually allowed to play around with the models, and this is what was mostly involved in the controversy over anatomically correct dolls in the late 1980s.
    (2) Maps, diagrams, sketches, and charts -- it's generally not important that the original creator of a map testify, only that whatever used is "official." Police-generated sketches and diagrams fall generally within judicial discretion where accuracy is the main concern. Sometimes, the evidence is taken as hearsay, or falls under one or more hearsay exemptions. A lot depends on the conditions of fairness and reliability at the time the sketch or diagram was made. Charts are viewed as useful adjuncts to testimony or not.
    (3) Photographs -- the broad use of photographs is permitted. The photo must substantially and accurately depict the subject matter, and not be unduly prejudicial. Photos that support only one party's theory, or a small part of a theory, are considered self-serving and untrustworthy. Examples of such inadmissible evidence would be staged or posed photos. Some courts place limits on lens, filters, color, and other special equipment, but not many.
    (4) Enlargements -- some courts place limits on the magnification allowed, no more than twenty power, for example. Photographs taken through microscopes depend upon the standardized criminalistics of the crime lab for a state or region.
    (5) Videotapes -- videotaped depositions and confessions are becoming common, and in civil cases, the practice of a "day-in-the-life" video is often admitted. The practice of taping drunk drivers is also popular in some states, but is best considered as real, rather than demonstrative, evidence. Courts have upheld surveillance imagery of the perpetrator in action at the scene of the crime. With demonstrative evidence involving motion, each "frame" or specified number of milliseconds is considered a separate piece of evidence. In other words, a movie is treated as a series of still photographs since the courts are more comfortable and familiar with still photography. Any audio portion of a videotape cannot be played (due to 5th Amendment concerns), or if it is, requires separate authentication. 
    (6) Computer reconstruction -- reconstructionists are a fast-growing forensic specialty, and the expertise involves a projection of possible outcomes mathematically predicted by a computer program. For example, known facts such as weight, physical dimensions, and surface friction are plugged into a computer algorithm to generate an accident simulation. It must be shown the simulation (algorithm) is based on accepted principles of physics, and there are sometimes further requirements involving the credentials of the expert. 
    (7) Scientific tests/demonstrations -- if a laboratory test is performed in front of the judge and jury, the benefit is that jurors would be allowed to draw independent inferences from it rather than being warned by the judge later that they are free to disregard the scientific testimony. The standard, therefore, is substantial similarity. The expert presenting a test, upon being qualified, is assumed to represent the theory of virtual certainty that the test would yield consistent results if replicated under substantially similar conditions. However, cross-examination of such experts is notoriously fierce.

RECONSTRUCTION PROTOCOLS AND CHECKLISTS

    Many instructors, myself included, hesitate to expose students to the checklist approach with something as important as criminal investigation.  The problem is there will always be someone who follows the checklist so closely they never learn anything, but are capable of going thru the motions.  Crime reconstruction is so situation- and logic-dependent that it defies standardization.  With that being said, and with full awareness that checklists can be easily found elsewhere and are frequently used by rookies, here's some basic protocols that might be followed in the process.

    The most basic steps are outlined by Turvey (1999), and consist of the following: (1) WOUND PATTERN ANALYSIS, (2) VICTIM STATE OF MIND, and (3) VICTIM MENTAL HEATH.  One of the things you'll note instantly is a focus on the victim and victimology.  Wound patterns should be examined at both the crime scene and at the autopsy, with the basic questions to be asked if the deceased could have caused the injuries or was familiar with methods of death.  The investigation should then spend the next 20-30 hours studying police, school, hospital, and employment records, along with interviewing various people about the victim's background.  Look for the classic warning signs of suicide, like giving away possessions, or sudden cheerfulness after a bout of depression.  If suicide can be ruled out, the information you've gathered will help you with the rest of the investigation.  Here's how you would investigate the victim as in a psychological autopsy:

    1. Alcohol and drug history, decedent's history of dealing with stress, medical history, family medical history, recent stressors in the victim's life, military history, employment history, educational history, sexual history, dietary history
    2. Interpersonal relationships, writings by the deceased, books and music owned by the deceased, web sites visited, phone calls made, recent conversations with friends, acquaintances, relatives, co-workers, and teachers, interests and hobbies shared with others, old and current enemies
    3. Reactions by any of the above parties to the victim's death, especially as to the degree of lethality, as well as the usual questions about early warning signs and who might have intended harm
    4. Assessment of intention about the role of the decedent in their own demise, including any sub-intentional, covert, or unconscious role, this obtained by analyzing the pattern of how the victim went about accomplishing their goals or life plans
    5. Fantasies, dreams, thoughts, premonitions, fears, or phobias of the victim, socio-emotional mood swings, mental status exam, concentration and judgment abilities, IQ
    6. Timeline of events leading up to the day of the deceased's death

THE CONCEPTS OF CRIME RECONSTRUCTION

    A number of terms require definition to fully understand reconstruction.  Induction is the process of reasoning where experience, skill, and observation are applied to the particulars of a case and a conclusion or generalization is drawn.  Deduction is the process of reasoning that starts with a generalization or premise and then considers the logical consequences of any particulars that follow.  Abduction is the process of cycling through both inductive and deductive reasoning by adding known facts until one is able to reject or retain a hypothesis.  Typology (aka classification or taxonomy) is the process of arranging known facts into mutually exclusive categories.  Synthesis is the process of combining separate parts or elements.  Analysis is the process of starting with the whole and breaking it down into its separate parts.  A hypothesis is a tentative assertion subject to verification or falsification.  A theory is a somewhat verified hypothesis.  Serendipity is the factor of chance or luck.  Some of these terms, and others, are used in different ways by detectives: 

    There's also certain steps or priorities that a seasoned investigator will take depending upon the crime he or she is investigating. While most textbook training is based on the homicide exemplar, in the real world, a seasoned investigator would probably investigate the following crimes using the steps in the order listed below:

Homicide:

Rape:

Robbery:

Burglary:

1- focus on deceased
2 -crime scene
3 - crime lab
1- focus on victim
2 - medical reports
3 - crime scene
4 - usual suspects
1 - modus operandi
2 - crime scene
3 - police records
1 - focus on scene
2 - records check
3 - property check
Source: adapted from Gilbert, J. (1980) Criminal Investigation. Columbus: Merrill.

    Modus Operandi can be defined as those behaviors, taken by the offender, that were necessary to commit the crime.  MO is learned behavior.  It is somewhat dynamic and can change over time (Douglas & Munn 1992).  Signature behaviors, by contrast, are those behaviors committed by offenders that serve psychological and emotional needs (Geberth 1994).  Records checks are similar to background checks, involving sources of information on people, up to and including garbageology, since it is not illegal to search through abandoned property.  Police records refer to the databases and resources that only police departments have access to.  

THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD OF CRIME RECONSTRUCTION

    Crime reconstruction typically starts with inductive reasoning, then proceeds to deductive reasoning, then involves a breaking down or analysis of facts, and then involves a building up of facts or synthesis.  The number and kind of facts, together with any ambiguity or doubt associated with them, determine the level of evidentiary value.  The process is almost exactly the same as the scientific method:

    The conclusions of a crime reconstruction should take one of four (4) forms about the sequence of events: (1) it can be shown to have occurred in a given manner; (2) it can be shown to have likely occurred in a given manner; (3) it can be shown to have unlikely occurred in a given manner; or (4) it cannot be shown to have occurred in a given manner.  The following table adapted from Osterburg & Ward (2000) relates these levels of certainty to legally admissible levels of proof:

LEVELS OF CERTAINTY AND LEVELS OF PROOF

PROOF

Intuition

Probable
Cause

Preponderance
of Evidence

Clear and
Convincing

Beyond
Reasonable
Doubt

Scientific
Certainty

EVIDENCE

hunch, guess, or gut feeling

facts a reasonable person would accept 

Corroborated facts, eyewitness testimony, physical evidence, or evidence interpreted by an expert Precise facts with known accuracy
QUANTITY articulable suspicion about possible facts prima facie, presumptive but rebuttable facts Over 50% of facts are in support Slightly less facts than beyond reasonable doubt Sufficient facts to preclude every reasonable alternative hypothesis Overwhelming facts
CERTAINTY apparent possible Basis for hypothesis formulation Basis for theory construction Seldom achieved
LAW  suppressed basis for binding over to next stage Civil law standard of proof International law standard of proof Criminal law standard of proof Seldom used
INVESTIGATION useful during early stages basis for arrest or search warrant basis for confession and informant law basis for conviction Seldom used

ADDENDUM: A PRIMER ON LOGICAL REASONING

        Back in the 1960s and 70s, it used to be that college curricula required students to take a course in logic, or symbolic logic, or at least a choice between ethics or logic in that part of the curriculum borrowed from the philosophy department.  Nobody knows exactly what happened, maybe community policing, maybe multiculturalism, but logic disappeared from almost every criminal justice curriculum in the 1980s, even as an elective.  This had repercussions because for one, law schools discovered criminal justice majors were relatively unprepared for law school (which emphasizes logic to a great degree), and for two, the field of criminal justice became somewhat stagnant and unaccepting of new fields of study (because logic opens up the doors to new disciplines, but in all fairness, the field of criminal justice was busy trying to settle in with some legitimacy in academic circles).  Anyway, the study of formal logic is fairly important.  It can be strongly recommended as something every college student should take, although it is possible to learn it on your own.  This Addendum may provide a start.

    The most commonly used type of logic in criminal justice is NOT deductive logic (as in Sherlock's "elementary, my Dear Watson"), but inductive logic.  Inductive logic is frequently used by seasoned investigators and in almost all forms of advanced crime scene analysis.  It is used when you only have small tidbits of information to work with.  It is sometimes called analogical reasoning or argument from analogy.  Analogies, synonyms, antonyms, metaphor, simile, rhyme, parable, fable, myth, and poetry all are part of or derived from inductive reasoning.  It is a skill which can be sharpened.  Linguistically, it is based on the study of meaning of words such as "normally," "likely," "often," "many," "rarely," "most," "some," "probably," "usually," and so on.  The best that can theoretically be said about an inductive argument, when one is made, is that the argument is sound or cogent, leading to likely conclusions, and/or (and this is important) what a reasonable person ought to believe.  Anyone familiar with the importance of the "reasonableness" standard in criminal justice ought to appreciate this characteristic of inductive reasoning.  

The most frequently cited example of inductive logic is what theologians call the argument from design:

"The universe exhibits a structural design" (premise)
"A machine exhibits a structural design" (premise)
"A machine is made by an intelligent being" (premise)
"The universe was made by an intelligent being" (conclusion)

    The Argument From Design draws an analogy between the universe and a machine, seeking to persuade us that they are similar in structure, and since a machine was made by an intelligent being, it is likely that the universe was made by an intelligent being. This argument is one of the many proofs of God (although "proof" is not a word that should be used with inductive reasoning). The form of the argument is as follows:

A has the property of C
B has the property of C
B has the property of D
A has the property of D

    There is no limit on the number of premises one can have.  Example: Suppose we are called to the scene of a murder committed on Tuesday at midnight around Sunset Avenue. The murder weapon was a .45, the victim was a derelict alcoholic, and there were a dozen witnesses who saw Jack do it. We put out an all-points bulletin on Jack, but he is not apprehended. Now suppose that on Wednesday night we are called to the scene of another murder, again committed at midnight on Sunset Avenue. The victim is a derelict alcoholic, the murder weapon is a .45, but unfortunately there are no witnesses.

    Drawing an analogy between these two crimes, we could easily reason that the Wednesday murder was committed by Jack also. Of course, we would have no proof, but we are highly suspicious, and have every reason to believe Jack also committed the second murder. The form of this is:

Tuesday's murder was committed at midnight (T has the property of M)
Wednesday's murder was committed at midnight (W has the property of M)
Tuesday's murder took place on Sunset Avenue (T has the property of S)
Wednesday's murder took place on Sunset Avenue (W has the property of S)
Tuesday's murder involved a .45 (T has the property of F)
Wednesday's murder involved a .45 (W has the property of F)
Tuesday's murder victim was a derelict alcoholic (T has the property of D)
Wednesday's murder victim was a derelict alcoholic (W has the property of D)
Tuesday's murder was committed by Jack (T has the property of J)
Wednesday's murder was committed by Jack (W has the property of J)

    In this example (with which we took some liberties with sentential logic), there are four properties in which two things compared have similarities, so it seems very likely that a fifth property is warranted. The more similarities, the more likely an inductive argument is cogent. This rule is called the rule of inductive generalization. 

COMMON FALLACIES OF INDUCTIVE REASONING

1. HASTY GENERALIZATION. This is the fallacy of reasoning to an unwarranted generalization on the basis of too small a sample. You need to decide if four (4) similarities are enough to warrant a 5th similarity. Not all similarities are alike, and perhaps because you've got one strong similarity, you are reaching or stretching for additional weak similarities, just to be making similarities.

2. POST HOC, ERGO PROPTER HOC. (After this, therefore because of this) It is a mistake to reason from the fact that B followed A in some particular instance, that A is probably the cause of B. It usually occurs when you are "dead sure" about something, particularly if your suspect is included in the first premise. For that reason, the "clincher" should usually be the last premise in your thinking.

3. EMOTIONAL REASONING. Are there any specific words, and their meanings which are being used to persuade? In our example, does the word "derelict" portray any special meaning, or does the proper name "Jack" conjure up images of a murderer? With inductive reasoning, it is best to remain impartial and even impersonal.

4. THE FALLACY OF COMPOSITION. This is the mistake of inferring that a property of the parts must also be a property of the whole. In our example, you will remember that we did not have any witnesses to the murder on Wednesday night. If we were to conclude that Jack likes to leave witnesses around whenever he murders somebody, we would be making this fallacy, or reading more into the whole than the parts imply.

5. FALSE DILEMMA. Inductive reasoning, because of it's open-endedness, can lead to this common mistake, which is assuming that there are only two alternatives, X and Y. Usually, this occurs when your premises are weak, and you are only able to identify less than desirable suspects from the parts of your logic; e.g., one of the witnesses did it, or another derelict alcoholic did it. A false dilemma exists when you must choose between two undesirable alternatives, and the persuasion in your argument is limited to choosing the least undesirable alternative. If this is the case, there almost always is a Z factor, or third alternative.

6. AFFIRMING THE CONSEQUENT (more properly called ASSERTING A CHAIN OF CONSEQUENCES FOLLOWING FROM AN HYPOTHESIS in inductive reasoning). One of the things that makes inductive reasoning "bottom-up" or "backward-looking" is the practice of hypothesis-testing. This involves treating the conclusion (Wednesday's murder was committed by Jack) as an hypothesis, and going back to each of the premises seeking any dissimilarities, flaws, or differences that would disconfirm the conclusion. The obvious flaw is that we have no witnesses to Wednesday's murder, so if we added the following, we would be affirming the consequent:

Tuesday's murder was committed in front of witnesses (If P, then Q)
Wednesday's murder was not committed in front of witnesses (Q)
Nevertheless, Tuesday's murder and Wednesday's murder are similar (P)

    There are times when all you have is information about one unique offender, and you want to generalize about all offenders of this type. The field of criminal justice has been slower than Social Work and Clinical Psychology in embracing the value of this single-subject (sample size N=1) or case study approach, yet examples from criminology are quite prevalent:

    Most of these case studies have been qualitative (meaning the interviews did not follow any precise order), and "ethnographic" (meaning the subject was allowed to express themselves in their own words). It's difficult to describe the variety of techniques used to arrive at useful generalizations without actually referring to specific passages, but I will make an attempt here to summarize some standard techniques of interpreting casework.

    One way to generalize from a sample of one is to argue that group data overlooks or blurs the significance of an individual success or failure. Nomothetic (group) designs simply add up the totals and look at averages. Idiographic (single subject) designs have the advantage of rescuing individual data from the pile of averages. This argument only works if the individual in question falls into some extreme (successful at crime or a complete failure at it). Scientists refer to these cases as "outliers", and it is probably better to use a successful individual rather than the failures our prisons are full of. Studies of so-called successful, or able, criminals are especially useful at finding out how most offenders try to avoid detection by law enforcement.

    Another way to generalize from a sample of one is to use the "universe in a dewdrop" perspective. This is sometimes called "methodological holism" and is common in anthropological and comparative studies. The idea is to find a subject that is so average, so typical, so much like everyone else, that he/she seems to reflect the whole universe of other subjects around him/her. In order for this to be more than an exercise in typicality, you should use some standard protocol. In other words, you ask a structured series of questions, and try to figure out which ones the subject regarded as essential or worthwhile and which ones he/she regarded as useless or throwaway. You usually do this by observing nonverbal rather than verbal behavior. Next, you need to follow some standard protocol in organizing and evaluating the verbal behavior itself. Several complex methods exist for this, from content analysis to historiography to meta-ethnography, but a simple, old-fashioned Q-sort technique exists where you put the subject's different ideas down on 3x5 cards, lay them down on the floor, and shuffle them into 3-4 master categories (called "themes") that you make up the names for. Some standard categories might be: (1) growing up a criminal; (2) becoming a successful criminal; (3) trying to stop being a criminal; and (4) adjusting to the criminal life, but use your own creativity in naming the categories, and stay close to the actual statements by your subject.

    Another way to generalize from a sample of one is to use the "oral history" approach. With this technique, first used by anthropologists who sought out the witchdoctor of a village, you need to find someone who is a natural "storyteller". Many offenders, if you can find one you believe to be articulate and truthful, have taken it upon themselves to chronicle, record, or otherwise, keep an eye on the careers of someone in their particular field of criminal endeavor. These particular individuals will often pontificate on and on about what it's like to be someone like them, and some of them can be surprisingly accurate about it, even though they lack self-insight themselves. The trick of this technique is to establish rapport and be able to tell your subject to "stop it" when you sense they are exaggerating or embellishing for effect.

    Case study or single-subject-based information can sometimes be used as a "natural experiment" or what scientists call "quasi-experimental time-series". In any time-series, you try to measure or get measurements of a single variable at many successive time periods. You also try to identify a baseline period before any treatments or interventions occurred in your subject's life. Let's take the following notation:

A = Baseline Period (Period of time before your subject turned to crime, got caught for their first offense, or first started trying to rehabilitate themself)

B = Treatment (Period of time during which your subject is engaged in crime, getting arrested for crime, or in a rehabilitation program)

C, D, etc. = Additional Treatments or phases your subject went through

    Given this notation, you can now see that several, fairly valid research designs can be constructed retroactively based on your interview or self-report data. These designs include:

    What you should look for in analyzing somebody's life this way is evidence of a "treatment effect" or lack thereof. For example, after B, when they returned to A or some equivalent, did the same introduction of factors or motives cause another B? And with multiple Bs, were the experiences qualitatively different? And what BC or BD combinations seemed to be effective or ineffective in returning the subject to A? You might want to try and measure these things quantitatively using a coding or rating scheme that the subject agrees with.

    Admittedly, these kind of designs are not "true" experiments where you have experimental and control groups and randomization, but some generalizability can be obtained by following systematic procedures, and as an afterthought, through replication of somebody else's case study approach. Returning once again to philosophy, replication or simply checking in with someone else (your subject, another subject, a colleague, etc.) can go a long way at validation of your standpoint, or in scientific terms, add intersubjective reliability.

    Deductive logic is an extension of our natural intuition and native intelligence, but unfortunately, only a small percentage of the population are gifted with it. However, the science of logic (which has existed for thousands of years) is designed to help us improve and perfect our thinking. Intelligence, too, is improvable, if one is willing to exercise determination and attention to detail.  Crimes can, and have been solved, with deductive logic alone. Think of the techniques and operations of deductive logic as ways to explore all the possibilities, to creatively and critically analyze your thought processes. It's what the jury and everybody else is going to do when second-guessing what you did, and lawyers are specially trained in this.

    All deductive reasoning involves several thoughts taken together. Any time we have a deduction, we are often not aware we are having several thoughts linked together. An example of a deduction would be "All chimpanzees are animals" which may be actually three (3) separate thoughts taken together:

"All chimpanzees are mammals (forest creatures, whatever)"
"All mammals (forest creatures, whatever) are animals"
Therefore, "All chimpanzees are animals"

    You probably recognize this as the form of a syllogism, one of the most basic patterns of reasoning in deductive logic. Any syllogism has the form:

"All A's are B's" (premise)
"All B's are C's" (premise)
"All A's are C's" (conclusion)

    Syllogisms usually are the best way to analyze deductions, or any thoughts which are really complex links of separate thoughts. There can be more than two premise statements, and the word "All" does not have to be included. Via acquisition of language, you have already learned how to make deductions using words like "and", "or", "not", "if...then", and "some".  The key is how to use syllogisms productively and avoid common mistakes.

PRODUCTIVE USES OF DEDUCTIVE REASONING

1. THE DISCONFIRMATION OF A HYPOTHESIS
Suppose you want to rule out a certain person as a suspect because they had no motive for committing the crime. You would be using an operation that logicians call modus tollens, and it would go like this:

"Mary's boyfriend deserves to be a suspect, he must have a motive" (premise)
"Mary's boyfriend does not have an apparent motive" (premise)
"Mary's boyfriend does not deserve to be a suspect" (conclusion)

The form of a modus tollens is as follows:

IF P, THEN Q (premise)
NOT Q (premise)
NOT P (conclusion)

You can also use a modus tollens to test the flow of consequences from an hypothesis, as in:

IF hypothesis (H1) is true, then consequence (C1)
NOT consequence (C1)
NOT hypothesis (H1)

2. CONFIRMATION OF A HYPOTHESIS
Suppose you wanted to assume, just hypothetically, that someone who had the key to Mary's apartment committed the crime. You would be using an operation that logicians call modus ponens, and it would go like this:

"If Mary's boyfriend did not have a key, he should not be considered a suspect"
"Mary's boyfriend did not have a key"
"He should not be considered a suspect"

The basic form of a modus ponens is:

IF P, THEN Q (premise)
P (premise)
Q (conclusion)

3. UNIVERSAL INSTANTIATION
Suppose, from your investigation of a case, that you earnestly believe anyone who committed such a crime must have a motive. Logicians call this kind of thinking a generalization, and the way to correctly deduce a generalization is thru universal instantiation, which goes like this:

"Anyone who committed this crime must have had a motive"

OR

(FOR ANY x) (IF x committed the crime, THEN x must have a motive"

Deductive reasoning would then lead you to consider ALL parties involved, as follows:

"If Mary's boyfriend committed the crime, he must have had a motive"
OR
"If the kid down the block committed it, he must have had a motive"
OR
"If President Bush committed the crime, he must have had a motive"
etc., etc.

4. DISJUNCTIVE SYLLOGISM
Suppose you were to use a process of elimination to weed out suspects in a case. You would be using the operation known as a disjunctive syllogism, which goes like this:

"Either the boyfriend did it or the kid down the block" (premise)
"The boyfriend didn't do it" (premise)
"The kid down the block did it" (conclusion)

The structure of a disjunctive syllogism is:

EITHER P OR Q
NOT P
THEREFORE Q

and since it makes no difference who is referred to in the negation, another form is:

EITHER P OR Q
NOT Q
THEREFORE P

COMMON FALLACIES OF DEDUCTIVE REASONING

1. REDUCIO AD ABSURDUM
Suppose you eliminated one suspect because they did not have a key, but you did not eliminate another suspect, who by the same reasoning, should have been eliminated because they also did not have a key.

The form of this thinking would be:

Suspects without a key should be eliminated from further consideration
One suspect did not have a key, and another suspect did not have a key
One suspect should be eliminated, but the other should receive further consideration

    In this case, you have made a logical error. The conclusion is a reducio ad absurdum or contradiction because you are asserting a thought to be true while at the same time asserting the same thought to be false. It is the same as saying God exists and God does not exist. You not only have an invalid argument, but one or more of your premises may be untrue.

2. TAUTOLOGIES
A tautology, or what some people call circular reasoning, is bad because it structures thought so rigidly that the conclusion is true necessarily, no matter what the facts may be. Suppose you were to say that "Either the key is important or it is not important" which takes the form: EITHER P or NOT P. This thought is non-committal, at best. There are numerous examples of tautologies other than the Either...Or variety, so beware.

3. EQUIVALENT THOUGHTS
Suppose you were to say:

"If the boyfriend is the suspect, then he had the key"

This is the equivalent of saying:

"If the boyfriend did not have the key, then the boyfriend is not the suspect"

In other words:

P implies Q
is always equivalent to
NOT Q implies NOT P

The above example is not really a fallacy (both statements are logically equivalent), but it is possible to get on shaky ground with equivalent thoughts, especially if multiple equivalent statements are strung together with different ones having different empirical starting points..., so beware again.

4. EMOTIONAL REASONING
Suppose you use your personal bias in an argument to eliminate certain people as suspects and not others on the basis of your beliefs about human nature, the kind of people they are, etc. There are actually two forms of this fallacy:

(a) BIAS IN REGARD TO PREMISES
"The boyfriend should be eliminated as a suspect because he is hard working. The kid down the block on the other hand is on welfare, and is probably too lazy to work. Lazy people think they can get away with spending our hard earned tax dollars and committing crimes too. I think that the kid down the block should be considered further."

The problem here is not so much the validity of the argument, but the untrue premise that people on welfare (lazy people) think they can get away with crime too. Even if it were true (for a significant portion of people), the premise is so biased as to deprive the argument of soundness.

(b) BIAS IN REGARD TO CONCLUSION
"If the boyfriend's alibi does not stand up, then that will prove he's guilty and that the case can be closed. We have just discovered that the alibi doesn't stand up, and therefore have proved that the boyfriend is guilty and that the case can be closed."

The problem here is a rush to judgment, or bias toward the conclusion. The poor reasoning is in the first premise. An alibi not standing up is no reason for conclusive determination of guilt and termination of the case.

5. DENYING THE ANTECEDENT
"The boyfriend is clearly intelligent. An intelligent person guilty of the crime would never have created such a flimsy alibi that fell apart so easily. A guilty person would have gone to the trouble of making sure their alibi checked out."

This takes the verbal form:

"A good alibi is the sign of an intelligent guilty person" (premise)
"The boyfriend does not have a good alibi" (premise)
"The boyfriend is not a guilty person" (conclusion)

and the logical form:

If P, then Q
Not P
Not Q

    This form of reasoning is fallacious because not only does it overlook the intelligence factor, but any number of true premises can be put through the logical form to produce a false conclusion.

6. AFFIRMING THE CONSEQUENT
There are a number of situations in which the conclusion does not follow from the premises, but is only inferred as likely, or very likely. These situations are best reserved for "inductive reasoning." With deductive reasoning, it is impossible for the premises to be true and the conclusion false. Thus, whenever we have an inductive argument (something is "likely"), we can have soundness without deductive proof. Suppose during interrogation, you say:

"You are one of a few suspects I have in this case. In carrying out my duty, I've had to pursue you as a suspect. And I might add, your alibi isn't worth a hoot."

This can be expressed in a form similar to a valid modus tollens argument:

"If you are innocent, your alibi will stand up" (premise)
"Your alibi does not stand up" (premise)
"You are therefore not innocent" (conclusion of positive guilt)

but in its logical form is invalid as:

If P, then Q
and Q
Therefore P

    The problem here is that the interrogator does not really believe the boyfriend is guilty, but thinks he is "probably" guilty. The thinking is designed to partially confirm the hypothesis and implies other "inductions" such as "You used the key to gain entry," or "You had a compelling motive," etc. There is no proof, only a likelihood or implication.

INTERNET RESOURCES
Article on Crime Scene Reconstruction as the Basis of Behavioral Evidence Analysis

Article on Inductive and Deductive Profiling Techniques

Craig Ball's Ten Commandments of Demonstrative Evidence
Crime-Scene-Investigator. Net

Crime Scene Reconstruction and the Criminal Profiler

Law-Forensic.com's Crime Scene Reconstruction Links

Shooting Reconstruction versus Shooting Reenactment

SoYouWanna Avoid Common Logic Errors

The Criminal Mind is a Reptilian Mind

The Visual Evidence Center's Chart on Planning Demonstrative Evidence

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