CRIME SCENE RECONSTRUCTION
"Science is nothing more than the a posteriori reconstruction of
exis" (Albert Einstein)
Crime reconstruction (aka crime scene reconstruction) is a fairly new area of study that became popular in the 1990s which many people loosely associate with profiling, psychological autopsy, or equivocal death analysis. Certainly, there are similarities between the four methods, but there are important differences. Profiling, for example, has its origins in the 1974 creation of the FBI's Behavioral Science Unit. Linkage analysis or signature analysis are subfields of profiling that have the closest ties to crime reconstruction. Psychological autopsy is a term first coined in 1977 by the Los Angeles Medical Examiner's Office to investigate suicide cases (Shneidman 1977). Equivocal death analysis (EDA), sometimes called equivocal death evaluation, is a term that first appeared during the 1989 USS Iowa incident in which Clayton Hartwig presumably blew himself up. Something is "equivocal" (as opposed to unequivocal, or certain) when conclusions lend themselves to different interpretations. Usually, the mode of death is equivocal (Ebert 1987), but Annon (1995) states it is when the manner of death is open to question.
Reconstruction involves the use of scientific method, logical reasoning, sources of information on people, criminology, victimology, and experience or skill to interpret the events that surround the commission of a crime. Bevel & Gardner (2001) define it as determining the most probable sequence of events. Reconstruction begins when detectives conduct a walk-through of a crime scene, simulating the events that may have happened in their minds. They sometimes call it getting a "feel" for the crime scene, but the process is as much cognitive as emotional. They are attempting to prove and disprove any sequence of events that may have happened. Some argue it has been a part of detective work for a long time (O'Hara & O'Hara 1973) and is what Osterburg & Ward (2000) call reconstructing the past. Although crime scene reconstruction involves walking through a crime scene, it should not be confused with crime scene analysis (or investigation) which is a standard part of police work. We are concerned here with forensic science, not investigative science.
Reconstruction is frequently done by senior criminalists, senior detectives, retired investigators, and a loose conglomeration of consultants from fields as diverse as anthropology (Mannheim 1999), sociology (Sanders 1974), history (Winks 1969), religion (Woodward 1990), and engineering (Carper 2001). Most consultants (including profilers) can be best utilized by visiting the crime scene while fresh, but they can sometimes work with information and documentation afterwards involving the physical evidence, witness statements, and the reports of other experts. Information such as the angles of shots, length and width of bloodstains, and wound patterns are highly important to most experts.
It is important to note that reconstruction is NOT the same as re-creating the crime scene or re-enacting the crime scene. Crime reenactment has nothing to do with criminalistics or scientific principles. Reenactment is typically seen in courtrooms when defense lawyers stage a jury show or present some sort of computer-animated virtual reality presentation to bolster their version of what they say happened. The rules of forensic law are quite strict on such demonstrations, and in fact, the rules for demonstrative evidence are deserving of some extended discussion, as follows:
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THE RULES ON DEMONSTRATIVE EVIDENCE |
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The days are gone when courts
took juries on expensive field trips to the crime scene. Just about
anything they need to see can be accomplished with the use of exhibits,
models, reconstructions, videotapes, and animations. Almost anything
"visual" ("sound" still enjoys certain Fifth Amendment protections) can be
presented in modern courts (under certain rules) and the effects are
dramatic since people retain 87% of what they see and only 10% of what
they hear. Visual exhibits generally fall into one of two (2)
categories: (1) real evidence; or (2) demonstrative evidence. So-called
"real" evidence is evidence that, in a sense, speaks for itself, as when
the prosecutor holds up a bag containing the murder weapon, asks the
police officer "Is this the weapon you found?" and then enters it as
"Exhibit A." Even though it is authenticated by a witness, real
evidence is separate, distinct, and doesn't rely upon a witness'
testimony. It has the weight of being additional evidence and can serve
many purposes.
(1) The most general rule is that there must be
some other piece of evidence -- a fact, an object, or testimony -- that
needs to be illustrated or demonstrated. Presentation is actually a
two-stage process: first some issue of fact, then the explanation or
demonstration stage. Demonstrative evidence is intended to be an adjunct
to testimony.
(3) The next most general rule is that
demonstrative evidence must pass the "three hurdles" of admissibility:
relevancy; materiality; and competency. Despite some disagreements over
the precise meaning of these terms, relevancy means the demonstrative
evidence has something to do with the reason the trial is being held, a
point at law, a question of guilt or innocence, etc. Materiality means it
goes directly to the purpose of illustration, is easily understandable,
produces no wayward inferences, and is not just an exercise in "educating"
the court or jury. Competency means it's the kind of thing that fits with
the decor and decorum of the court, is on the up-and-up, ethical, and
doesn't taint the court or subvert the justice process. There are more guidelines for specific kinds of
evidence, involving established practices or procedures for the
presentation of various types of demonstrative evidence. In this respect,
practices may vary considerably by jurisdiction, but in general, here are
some of the specifics: |
RECONSTRUCTION PROTOCOLS AND CHECKLISTS
Many instructors, myself included, hesitate to expose students to the checklist approach with something as important as criminal investigation. The problem is there will always be someone who follows the checklist so closely they never learn anything, but are capable of going thru the motions. Crime reconstruction is so situation- and logic-dependent that it defies standardization. With that being said, and with full awareness that checklists can be easily found elsewhere and are frequently used by rookies, here's some basic protocols that might be followed in the process.
The most basic steps are outlined by Turvey (1999), and consist of the following: (1) WOUND PATTERN ANALYSIS, (2) VICTIM STATE OF MIND, and (3) VICTIM MENTAL HEATH. One of the things you'll note instantly is a focus on the victim and victimology. Wound patterns should be examined at both the crime scene and at the autopsy, with the basic questions to be asked if the deceased could have caused the injuries or was familiar with methods of death. The investigation should then spend the next 20-30 hours studying police, school, hospital, and employment records, along with interviewing various people about the victim's background. Look for the classic warning signs of suicide, like giving away possessions, or sudden cheerfulness after a bout of depression. If suicide can be ruled out, the information you've gathered will help you with the rest of the investigation. Here's how you would investigate the victim as in a psychological autopsy:
1. Alcohol and drug history, decedent's history of dealing
with stress, medical history, family medical history, recent stressors in the
victim's life, military history, employment history, educational history, sexual
history, dietary history
2. Interpersonal relationships, writings by the deceased, books and music
owned by the deceased, web sites visited, phone calls made, recent conversations
with friends, acquaintances, relatives, co-workers, and teachers, interests and
hobbies shared with others, old and current enemies
3. Reactions by any of the above parties to the victim's death, especially
as to the degree of lethality, as well as the usual questions about early
warning signs and who might have intended harm
4. Assessment of intention about the role of the decedent in their own
demise, including any sub-intentional, covert, or unconscious role, this
obtained by analyzing the pattern of how the victim went about accomplishing
their goals or life plans
5. Fantasies, dreams, thoughts, premonitions, fears, or phobias of the
victim, socio-emotional mood swings, mental status exam, concentration and
judgment abilities, IQ
6. Timeline of events leading up to the day of the deceased's death
THE CONCEPTS OF CRIME RECONSTRUCTION
A number of terms require definition to fully understand reconstruction. Induction is the process of reasoning where experience, skill, and observation are applied to the particulars of a case and a conclusion or generalization is drawn. Deduction is the process of reasoning that starts with a generalization or premise and then considers the logical consequences of any particulars that follow. Abduction is the process of cycling through both inductive and deductive reasoning by adding known facts until one is able to reject or retain a hypothesis. Typology (aka classification or taxonomy) is the process of arranging known facts into mutually exclusive categories. Synthesis is the process of combining separate parts or elements. Analysis is the process of starting with the whole and breaking it down into its separate parts. A hypothesis is a tentative assertion subject to verification or falsification. A theory is a somewhat verified hypothesis. Serendipity is the factor of chance or luck. Some of these terms, and others, are used in different ways by detectives:
There's also certain steps or priorities that a seasoned investigator will take depending upon the crime he or she is investigating. While most textbook training is based on the homicide exemplar, in the real world, a seasoned investigator would probably investigate the following crimes using the steps in the order listed below:
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Homicide: |
Rape: |
Robbery: |
Burglary: |
| 1- focus on deceased 2 -crime scene 3 - crime lab |
1- focus on victim 2 - medical reports 3 - crime scene 4 - usual suspects |
1 - modus operandi 2 - crime scene 3 - police records |
1 - focus on scene 2 - records check 3 - property check |
| Source: adapted from Gilbert, J. (1980) Criminal Investigation. Columbus: Merrill. | |||
Modus Operandi can be defined as those behaviors, taken by the offender, that were necessary to commit the crime. MO is learned behavior. It is somewhat dynamic and can change over time (Douglas & Munn 1992). Signature behaviors, by contrast, are those behaviors committed by offenders that serve psychological and emotional needs (Geberth 1994). Records checks are similar to background checks, involving sources of information on people, up to and including garbageology, since it is not illegal to search through abandoned property. Police records refer to the databases and resources that only police departments have access to.
THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD OF CRIME RECONSTRUCTION
Crime reconstruction typically starts with inductive reasoning, then proceeds to deductive reasoning, then involves a breaking down or analysis of facts, and then involves a building up of facts or synthesis. The number and kind of facts, together with any ambiguity or doubt associated with them, determine the level of evidentiary value. The process is almost exactly the same as the scientific method:
Step 1 -- State the problem by looking at what type of crime was committed, the legal elements of the crime, and the characteristics of the jurisdiction where the crime was committed
Step 2 -- Form a hypothesis by looking at the physical evidence and interviewing the victim or witnesses to determine motive and possible suspects
Step 3 -- Collect data by doing records checks and police checks, re-interviewing the victim, witnesses, and suspects, while trying to obtain additional witnesses and exemplar or comparison samples from suspects
Step 4 -- Test hypotheses by evaluating how truthful and reliable the stories are of each party to the crime, and weigh their stories against the physical evidence and any known physical laws that could possibly reinterpret the physical evidence
Step 5 -- Follow up on the most promising hypotheses (theories) with any and all procedures (e.g., surveillance, stings) that might prove or disprove a particular suspect is the offender
Step 6 -- Draw conclusions that are supported by court-admissible evidence leading to the arrest, prosecution, and conviction of the offender.
The conclusions of a crime reconstruction should take one of four (4) forms about the sequence of events: (1) it can be shown to have occurred in a given manner; (2) it can be shown to have likely occurred in a given manner; (3) it can be shown to have unlikely occurred in a given manner; or (4) it cannot be shown to have occurred in a given manner. The following table adapted from Osterburg & Ward (2000) relates these levels of certainty to legally admissible levels of proof:
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LEVELS OF CERTAINTY AND LEVELS OF PROOF |
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| PROOF |
Intuition |
Probable |
Preponderance |
Clear and |
Beyond |
Scientific |
| EVIDENCE |
hunch, guess, or gut feeling |
facts a reasonable person would accept |
Corroborated facts, eyewitness testimony, physical evidence, or evidence interpreted by an expert | Precise facts with known accuracy | ||
| QUANTITY | articulable suspicion about possible facts | prima facie, presumptive but rebuttable facts | Over 50% of facts are in support | Slightly less facts than beyond reasonable doubt | Sufficient facts to preclude every reasonable alternative hypothesis | Overwhelming facts |
| CERTAINTY | apparent | possible | Basis for hypothesis formulation | Basis for theory construction | Seldom achieved | |
| LAW | suppressed | basis for binding over to next stage | Civil law standard of proof | International law standard of proof | Criminal law standard of proof | Seldom used |
| INVESTIGATION | useful during early stages | basis for arrest or search warrant | basis for confession and informant law | basis for conviction | Seldom used | |
ADDENDUM: A PRIMER ON LOGICAL REASONING
Back in the 1960s and 70s, it used to be that college curricula required students to take a course in logic, or symbolic logic, or at least a choice between ethics or logic in that part of the curriculum borrowed from the philosophy department. Nobody knows exactly what happened, maybe community policing, maybe multiculturalism, but logic disappeared from almost every criminal justice curriculum in the 1980s, even as an elective. This had repercussions because for one, law schools discovered criminal justice majors were relatively unprepared for law school (which emphasizes logic to a great degree), and for two, the field of criminal justice became somewhat stagnant and unaccepting of new fields of study (because logic opens up the doors to new disciplines, but in all fairness, the field of criminal justice was busy trying to settle in with some legitimacy in academic circles). Anyway, the study of formal logic is fairly important. It can be strongly recommended as something every college student should take, although it is possible to learn it on your own. This Addendum may provide a start.
The most commonly used type of logic in criminal justice is NOT deductive logic (as in Sherlock's "elementary, my Dear Watson"), but inductive logic. Inductive logic is frequently used by seasoned investigators and in almost all forms of advanced crime scene analysis. It is used when you only have small tidbits of information to work with. It is sometimes called analogical reasoning or argument from analogy. Analogies, synonyms, antonyms, metaphor, simile, rhyme, parable, fable, myth, and poetry all are part of or derived from inductive reasoning. It is a skill which can be sharpened. Linguistically, it is based on the study of meaning of words such as "normally," "likely," "often," "many," "rarely," "most," "some," "probably," "usually," and so on. The best that can theoretically be said about an inductive argument, when one is made, is that the argument is sound or cogent, leading to likely conclusions, and/or (and this is important) what a reasonable person ought to believe. Anyone familiar with the importance of the "reasonableness" standard in criminal justice ought to appreciate this characteristic of inductive reasoning.
The most frequently cited example of inductive logic is what theologians call the argument from design:
"The universe exhibits a structural design" (premise)
"A machine exhibits a structural design" (premise)
"A machine is made by an intelligent being" (premise)
"The universe was made by an intelligent being" (conclusion)
The Argument From Design draws an analogy between the universe and a machine, seeking to persuade us that they are similar in structure, and since a machine was made by an intelligent being, it is likely that the universe was made by an intelligent being. This argument is one of the many proofs of God (although "proof" is not a word that should be used with inductive reasoning). The form of the argument is as follows:
A has the property of C
B has the property of C
B has the property of D
A has the property of D
There is no limit on the number of premises one can have. Example:
Suppose we are called to the scene of a murder committed on Tuesday at
midnight around Sunset Avenue. The murder weapon was a .45, the victim was a
derelict alcoholic, and there were a dozen witnesses who saw Jack do it. We put
out an all-points bulletin on Jack, but he is not apprehended. Now suppose that
on Wednesday night we are called to the scene of another murder, again committed
at midnight on Sunset Avenue. The victim is a derelict alcoholic, the murder
weapon is a .45, but unfortunately there are no witnesses.
Drawing an analogy between these two crimes, we could easily reason that the
Wednesday murder was committed by Jack also. Of course, we would have no proof,
but we are highly suspicious, and have every reason to believe Jack also
committed the second murder. The form of this is:
Tuesday's murder was committed at midnight (T has the
property of M)
Wednesday's murder was committed at midnight (W has the property of M)
Tuesday's murder took place on Sunset Avenue (T has the property of S)
Wednesday's murder took place on Sunset Avenue (W has the property of S)
Tuesday's murder involved a .45 (T has the property of F)
Wednesday's murder involved a .45 (W has the property of F)
Tuesday's murder victim was a derelict alcoholic (T has the property of D)
Wednesday's murder victim was a derelict alcoholic (W has the property of D)
Tuesday's murder was committed by Jack (T has the property of J)
Wednesday's murder was committed by Jack (W has the property of J)
In this example (with which we took some liberties with sentential logic), there are four properties in which two things compared have similarities, so it seems very likely that a fifth property is warranted. The more similarities, the more likely an inductive argument is cogent. This rule is called the rule of inductive generalization.
COMMON FALLACIES OF INDUCTIVE REASONING
1. HASTY GENERALIZATION. This is the fallacy of reasoning to an
unwarranted generalization on the basis of too small a sample. You need to
decide if four (4) similarities are enough to warrant a 5th similarity. Not all
similarities are alike, and perhaps because you've got one strong similarity,
you are reaching or stretching for additional weak similarities, just to be
making similarities.
2. POST HOC, ERGO PROPTER HOC. (After this, therefore because of this) It is a
mistake to reason from the fact that B followed A in some particular instance,
that A is probably the cause of B. It usually occurs when you are "dead sure"
about something, particularly if your suspect is included in the first premise.
For that reason, the "clincher" should usually be the last premise in your
thinking.
3. EMOTIONAL REASONING. Are there any specific words, and their meanings which
are being used to persuade? In our example, does the word "derelict" portray any
special meaning, or does the proper name "Jack" conjure up images of a murderer?
With inductive reasoning, it is best to remain impartial and even impersonal.
4. THE FALLACY OF COMPOSITION. This is the mistake of inferring that a property
of the parts must also be a property of the whole. In our example, you will
remember that we did not have any witnesses to the murder on Wednesday night. If
we were to conclude that Jack likes to leave witnesses around whenever he
murders somebody, we would be making this fallacy, or reading more into the
whole than the parts imply.
5. FALSE DILEMMA. Inductive reasoning, because of it's open-endedness, can lead
to this common mistake, which is assuming that there are only two alternatives,
X and Y. Usually, this occurs when your premises are weak, and you are only able
to identify less than desirable suspects from the parts of your logic; e.g., one
of the witnesses did it, or another derelict alcoholic did it. A false dilemma
exists when you must choose between two undesirable alternatives, and the
persuasion in your argument is limited to choosing the least undesirable
alternative. If this is the case, there almost always is a Z factor, or third
alternative.
6. AFFIRMING THE CONSEQUENT (more properly called ASSERTING A CHAIN OF
CONSEQUENCES FOLLOWING FROM AN HYPOTHESIS in inductive reasoning). One of the
things that makes inductive reasoning "bottom-up" or "backward-looking" is the
practice of hypothesis-testing. This involves treating the conclusion
(Wednesday's murder was committed by Jack) as an hypothesis, and going back to
each of the premises seeking any dissimilarities, flaws, or differences that
would disconfirm the conclusion. The obvious flaw is that we have no witnesses
to Wednesday's murder, so if we added the following, we would be affirming the
consequent:
Tuesday's murder was committed in front of witnesses (If P,
then Q)
Wednesday's murder was not committed in front of witnesses (Q)
Nevertheless, Tuesday's murder and Wednesday's murder are similar (P)
There are times when all you have is information about one unique offender, and you want to generalize about all offenders of this type. The field of criminal justice has been slower than Social Work and Clinical Psychology in embracing the value of this single-subject (sample size N=1) or case study approach, yet examples from criminology are quite prevalent:
Most of these case studies have been qualitative (meaning the interviews did not follow any precise order), and "ethnographic" (meaning the subject was allowed to express themselves in their own words). It's difficult to describe the variety of techniques used to arrive at useful generalizations without actually referring to specific passages, but I will make an attempt here to summarize some standard techniques of interpreting casework.
One way to generalize from a sample of one is to argue that group data
overlooks or blurs the significance of an individual success or failure.
Nomothetic (group) designs simply add up the totals and look at averages.
Idiographic (single subject) designs have the advantage of rescuing individual
data from the pile of averages. This argument only works if the individual in
question falls into some extreme (successful at crime or a complete failure at
it). Scientists refer to these cases as "outliers", and it is probably better to
use a successful individual rather than the failures our prisons are full of.
Studies of so-called successful, or able, criminals are especially useful at
finding out how most offenders try to avoid detection by law enforcement.
Another way to generalize from a sample of one is to use the "universe in a
dewdrop" perspective. This is sometimes called "methodological holism" and is
common in anthropological and comparative studies. The idea is to find a subject
that is so average, so typical, so much like everyone else, that he/she seems to
reflect the whole universe of other subjects around him/her. In order for this
to be more than an exercise in typicality, you should use some standard
protocol. In other words, you ask a structured series of questions, and try to
figure out which ones the subject regarded as essential or worthwhile and which
ones he/she regarded as useless or throwaway. You usually do this by observing
nonverbal rather than verbal behavior. Next, you need to follow some standard
protocol in organizing and evaluating the verbal behavior itself. Several
complex methods exist for this, from content analysis to historiography to
meta-ethnography, but a simple, old-fashioned Q-sort technique exists where you
put the subject's different ideas down on 3x5 cards, lay them down on the floor,
and shuffle them into 3-4 master categories (called "themes") that you make up
the names for. Some standard categories might be: (1) growing up a criminal; (2)
becoming a successful criminal; (3) trying to stop being a criminal; and (4)
adjusting to the criminal life, but use your own creativity in naming the
categories, and stay close to the actual statements by your subject.
Another way to generalize from a sample of one is to use the "oral history"
approach. With this technique, first used by anthropologists who sought out the
witchdoctor of a village, you need to find someone who is a natural
"storyteller". Many offenders, if you can find one you believe to be articulate
and truthful, have taken it upon themselves to chronicle, record, or otherwise,
keep an eye on the careers of someone in their particular field of criminal
endeavor. These particular individuals will often pontificate on and on about
what it's like to be someone like them, and some of them can be surprisingly
accurate about it, even though they lack self-insight themselves. The trick of
this technique is to establish rapport and be able to tell your subject to "stop
it" when you sense they are exaggerating or embellishing for effect.
Case study or single-subject-based information can sometimes be used
as a "natural experiment" or what scientists call "quasi-experimental
time-series". In any time-series, you try to measure or get measurements of a
single variable at many successive time periods. You also try to identify a
baseline period before any treatments or interventions occurred in your
subject's life. Let's take the following notation:
A = Baseline Period (Period of time before your subject turned to crime,
got caught for their first offense, or first started trying to rehabilitate
themself)
B = Treatment (Period of time during which your subject is engaged in
crime, getting arrested for crime, or in a rehabilitation program)
C, D, etc. = Additional Treatments or phases your subject went through
Given this notation, you can now see that several, fairly valid research
designs can be constructed retroactively based on your interview or self-report
data. These designs include:
What you should look for in analyzing somebody's life this way is
evidence of a "treatment effect" or lack thereof. For example, after B, when
they returned to A or some equivalent, did the same introduction of factors or
motives cause another B? And with multiple Bs, were the experiences
qualitatively different? And what BC or BD combinations seemed to be effective
or ineffective in returning the subject to A? You might want to try and measure
these things quantitatively using a coding or rating scheme that the subject
agrees with.
Admittedly, these kind of designs are not "true" experiments where you have
experimental and control groups and randomization, but some generalizability can
be obtained by following systematic procedures, and as an afterthought, through
replication of somebody else's case study approach. Returning once again
to philosophy, replication or simply checking in with someone else (your
subject, another subject, a colleague, etc.) can go a long way at validation
of your standpoint, or in scientific terms, add intersubjective reliability.
Deductive logic is an extension of our natural intuition and native intelligence, but unfortunately, only a small percentage of the population are gifted with it. However, the science of logic (which has existed for thousands of years) is designed to help us improve and perfect our thinking. Intelligence, too, is improvable, if one is willing to exercise determination and attention to detail. Crimes can, and have been solved, with deductive logic alone. Think of the techniques and operations of deductive logic as ways to explore all the possibilities, to creatively and critically analyze your thought processes. It's what the jury and everybody else is going to do when second-guessing what you did, and lawyers are specially trained in this.
All deductive reasoning involves several thoughts taken together. Any time we have a deduction, we are often not aware we are having several thoughts linked together. An example of a deduction would be "All chimpanzees are animals" which may be actually three (3) separate thoughts taken together:
"All chimpanzees are mammals (forest creatures, whatever)"
"All mammals (forest creatures, whatever) are animals"
Therefore, "All chimpanzees are animals"
You probably recognize this as the form of a syllogism, one of the most basic patterns of reasoning in deductive logic. Any syllogism has the form:
"All A's are B's" (premise)
"All B's are C's" (premise)
"All A's are C's" (conclusion)
Syllogisms usually are the best way to analyze deductions, or any thoughts which are really complex links of separate thoughts. There can be more than two premise statements, and the word "All" does not have to be included. Via acquisition of language, you have already learned how to make deductions using words like "and", "or", "not", "if...then", and "some". The key is how to use syllogisms productively and avoid common mistakes.
PRODUCTIVE USES OF DEDUCTIVE REASONING
1. THE DISCONFIRMATION OF A HYPOTHESIS
Suppose you want to rule out a certain person as a suspect because they had no
motive for committing the crime. You would be using an operation that logicians
call modus tollens, and it would go like this:
"Mary's boyfriend deserves to be a suspect, he must have a
motive" (premise)
"Mary's boyfriend does not have an apparent motive" (premise)
"Mary's boyfriend does not deserve to be a suspect" (conclusion)
The form of a modus tollens is as follows:
IF P, THEN Q (premise)
NOT Q (premise)
NOT P (conclusion)
You can also use a modus tollens to test the flow of consequences from an hypothesis, as in:
IF hypothesis (H1) is true, then consequence (C1)
NOT consequence (C1)
NOT hypothesis (H1)
2. CONFIRMATION OF A HYPOTHESIS
Suppose you wanted to assume, just hypothetically, that someone who had the key
to Mary's apartment committed the crime. You would be using an operation that
logicians call modus ponens, and it would go like this:
"If Mary's boyfriend did not have a key, he should not be
considered a suspect"
"Mary's boyfriend did not have a key"
"He should not be considered a suspect"
The basic form of a modus ponens is:
IF P, THEN Q (premise)
P (premise)
Q (conclusion)
3. UNIVERSAL INSTANTIATION
Suppose, from your investigation of a case, that you earnestly believe anyone
who committed such a crime must have a motive. Logicians call this kind of
thinking a generalization, and the way to correctly deduce a generalization is
thru universal instantiation, which goes like this:
"Anyone who committed this crime must have had a motive"
OR
(FOR ANY x) (IF x committed the crime, THEN x must have a motive"
Deductive reasoning would then lead you to consider ALL parties involved, as follows:
"If Mary's boyfriend committed the crime, he must have had
a motive"
OR
"If the kid down the block committed it, he must have had a motive"
OR
"If President Bush committed the crime, he must have had a motive"
etc., etc.
4. DISJUNCTIVE SYLLOGISM
Suppose you were to use a process of elimination to weed out suspects in a case.
You would be using the operation known as a disjunctive syllogism, which
goes like this:
"Either the boyfriend did it or the kid down the block"
(premise)
"The boyfriend didn't do it" (premise)
"The kid down the block did it" (conclusion)
The structure of a disjunctive syllogism is:
EITHER P OR Q
NOT P
THEREFORE Q
and since it makes no difference who is referred to in the negation, another form is:
EITHER P OR Q
NOT Q
THEREFORE P
COMMON FALLACIES OF DEDUCTIVE REASONING
1. REDUCIO AD ABSURDUM
Suppose you eliminated one suspect because they did not have a key, but you did
not eliminate another suspect, who by the same reasoning, should have been
eliminated because they also did not have a key.
The form of this thinking would be:
Suspects without a key should be eliminated from further
consideration
One suspect did not have a key, and another suspect did not have a key
One suspect should be eliminated, but the other should receive further
consideration
In this case, you have made a logical error. The conclusion is a
reducio ad absurdum or contradiction because you are asserting a thought to
be true while at the same time asserting the same thought to be false. It is the
same as saying God exists and God does not exist. You not only have an invalid
argument, but one or more of your premises may be untrue.
2. TAUTOLOGIES
A tautology, or what some people call circular reasoning, is bad because it
structures thought so rigidly that the conclusion is true necessarily, no matter
what the facts may be. Suppose you were to say that "Either the key is important
or it is not important" which takes the form: EITHER P or NOT P. This thought is
non-committal, at best. There are numerous examples of tautologies other than
the Either...Or variety, so beware.
3. EQUIVALENT THOUGHTS
Suppose you were to say:
"If the boyfriend is the suspect, then he had the key"
This is the equivalent of saying:
"If the boyfriend did not have the key, then the boyfriend is not the suspect"
In other words:
P implies Q
is always equivalent to
NOT Q implies NOT P
The above example is not really a fallacy (both statements are logically equivalent), but it is possible to get on shaky ground with equivalent thoughts, especially if multiple equivalent statements are strung together with different ones having different empirical starting points..., so beware again.
4. EMOTIONAL REASONING
Suppose you use your personal bias in an argument to eliminate certain people as
suspects and not others on the basis of your beliefs about human nature, the
kind of people they are, etc. There are actually two forms of this fallacy:
(a) BIAS IN REGARD TO PREMISES
"The boyfriend should be eliminated as a suspect because he is hard working. The
kid down the block on the other hand is on welfare, and is probably too lazy to
work. Lazy people think they can get away with spending our hard earned tax
dollars and committing crimes too. I think that the kid down the block should be
considered further."
The problem here is not so much the validity of the argument, but the untrue
premise that people on welfare (lazy people) think they can get away with crime
too. Even if it were true (for a significant portion of people), the premise is
so biased as to deprive the argument of soundness.
(b) BIAS IN REGARD TO CONCLUSION
"If the boyfriend's alibi does not stand up, then that will prove he's guilty
and that the case can be closed. We have just discovered that the alibi doesn't
stand up, and therefore have proved that the boyfriend is guilty and that the
case can be closed."
The problem here is a rush to judgment, or bias toward the conclusion. The poor
reasoning is in the first premise. An alibi not standing up is no reason for
conclusive determination of guilt and termination of the case.
5. DENYING THE ANTECEDENT
"The boyfriend is clearly intelligent. An intelligent person guilty of the crime
would never have created such a flimsy alibi that fell apart so easily. A guilty
person would have gone to the trouble of making sure their alibi checked out."
This takes the verbal form:
"A good alibi is the sign of an intelligent guilty person"
(premise)
"The boyfriend does not have a good alibi" (premise)
"The boyfriend is not a guilty person" (conclusion)
and the logical form:
If P, then Q
Not P
Not Q
This form of reasoning is fallacious because not only does it overlook
the intelligence factor, but any number of true premises can be put through the
logical form to produce a false conclusion.
6. AFFIRMING THE CONSEQUENT
There are a number of situations in which the conclusion does not follow from
the premises, but is only inferred as likely, or very likely. These situations
are best reserved for "inductive reasoning." With deductive reasoning, it is
impossible for the premises to be true and the conclusion false. Thus, whenever
we have an inductive argument (something is "likely"), we can have soundness
without deductive proof. Suppose during interrogation, you say:
"You are one of a few suspects I have in this case. In carrying out my duty,
I've had to pursue you as a suspect. And I might add, your alibi isn't worth a
hoot."
This can be expressed in a form similar to a valid modus tollens argument:
"If you are innocent, your alibi will stand up" (premise)
"Your alibi does not stand up" (premise)
"You are therefore not innocent" (conclusion of positive guilt)
but in its logical form is invalid as:
If P, then Q
and
Q
Therefore P
The problem here is that the interrogator does not really believe the boyfriend is guilty, but thinks he is "probably" guilty. The thinking is designed to partially confirm the hypothesis and implies other "inductions" such as "You used the key to gain entry," or "You had a compelling motive," etc. There is no proof, only a likelihood or implication.
INTERNET RESOURCES
Article on Crime Scene Reconstruction as the Basis of Behavioral Evidence
Analysis
Article on Inductive and Deductive Profiling Techniques
Craig Ball's Ten Commandments
of Demonstrative Evidence
Crime-Scene-Investigator. Net
Crime Scene Reconstruction and the Criminal Profiler
Law-Forensic.com's Crime Scene Reconstruction Links
Shooting Reconstruction versus Shooting Reenactment
SoYouWanna Avoid Common Logic Errors
The Criminal Mind is a Reptilian Mind
The Visual Evidence
Center's Chart on Planning Demonstrative Evidence
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